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Demographic Ageing and the Polarization of Regions - An Exploratory Space-Time Analysis

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  • Terry Gregory

    (ZEW Centre for European Economic Research, Germany)

  • Roberto Patuelli

    (University of Bologna, Italy; The Rimini Centre for Economic Analysis (RCEA), Italy)

Abstract

Demographic change is expected to affect labour markets in very different ways on a regional scale. The objective of this paper is to explore the spatio-temporal patterns of recent distributional changes in the workers age structure, innovation output and skill composition for German regions by conducting an Exploratory Space-Time Data Analysis (ESTDA). Beside commonly used tools, we apply newly developed approaches which allow investigating the space-time dynamics of the spatial distributions. We include an analysis of the joint distributional dynamics of the patenting variable with the remaining interest variables. Overall, we find strong clustering tendencies for the demographic variables and innovation that constitute a great divide across German regions. The detected clusters partly evolve over time and suggest a demographic polarization trend among regions that may further reinforce the observed innovation divide in the future.

Suggested Citation

  • Terry Gregory & Roberto Patuelli, 2013. "Demographic Ageing and the Polarization of Regions - An Exploratory Space-Time Analysis," Working Paper series 51_13, Rimini Centre for Economic Analysis, revised Feb 2015.
    • Handle: RePEc:rim:rimwps:51_13
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    9. Kassoum Ayouba & Julie Le Gallo & Andrés Vallone, 2020. "Beyond GDP: an analysis of the socio-economic diversity of European regions," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 52(9), pages 1010-1029, February.
    10. Bauer, Thomas K. & Rulff, Christian & Tamminga, Michael M., 2019. "Berlin calling - Internal migration in Germany," Ruhr Economic Papers 823, RWI - Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-University Bochum, TU Dortmund University, University of Duisburg-Essen.
    11. John Moffat & Duncan Roth, 2014. "Cohort size and youth labour-market outcomes: the role of measurement error," MAGKS Papers on Economics 201440, Philipps-Universität Marburg, Faculty of Business Administration and Economics, Department of Economics (Volkswirtschaftliche Abteilung).
    12. Blien Uwe & Möller Joachim & Hong Van Phan thi & Brunow Stephan, 2016. "Long-Lasting Labour Market Consequences of German Unification," Journal of Economics and Statistics (Jahrbuecher fuer Nationaloekonomie und Statistik), De Gruyter, vol. 236(2), pages 181-216, March.
    13. Matthias Piontek & Michael Wyrwich, 2017. "The emergence of entrepreneurial ideas at universities in times of demographic change: evidence from Germany [Die Entstehung von Gründungsideen und neuen Unternehmen in Zeiten demografischen Wandel," Review of Regional Research: Jahrbuch für Regionalwissenschaft, Springer;Gesellschaft für Regionalforschung (GfR), vol. 37(1), pages 1-37, February.
    14. Matthias Wrede, 2015. "Akzeptanz der Förderung gleichwertiger Lebensverhältnisse und Arbeitsbedingungen," Review of Regional Research: Jahrbuch für Regionalwissenschaft, Springer;Gesellschaft für Regionalforschung (GfR), vol. 35(1), pages 103-119, February.
    15. Krystian Heffner & Brygida Klemens & Brygida Solga, 2019. "Challenges of Regional Development in the Context of Population Ageing. Analysis Based on the Example of Opolskie Voivodeship," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(19), pages 1-23, September.
    16. Pontarollo, Nicola & Serpieri, Carolina, 2020. "A composite policy tool to measure territorial resilience capacity," Socio-Economic Planning Sciences, Elsevier, vol. 70(C).
    17. Paula Prenzel, 2021. "Are old regions less attractive? Interregional labour migration in a context of population ageing," Papers in Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 100(6), pages 1429-1447, December.
    18. Andrés Vallone & Coro Chasco, 2020. "Spatiotemporal methods for analysis of urban system dynamics: an application to Chile," The Annals of Regional Science, Springer;Western Regional Science Association, vol. 64(2), pages 421-454, April.
    19. Mikaela Backman & Janet E. Kohlhase, 2020. "Labor force diversity and firm survival," Journal of Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 60(5), pages 903-928, November.
    20. Vytenis Juozas Deimantas & A. Ebru Şanlıtürk & Leo Azzollini & Selin Köksal, 2024. "Population Dynamics and Policies in Europe: Analysis of Population Resilience at the Subnational and National Levels," Population Research and Policy Review, Springer;Southern Demographic Association (SDA), vol. 43(2), pages 1-28, April.
    21. Arntz, Melanie & Gregory, Terry, 2014. "What old stagers could teach us: Examining age complementarities in regional innovation systems," ZEW Discussion Papers 14-050, ZEW - Leibniz Centre for European Economic Research.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    innovation; workforce age structure; exploratory space-time data analysis; regional disparities;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • J11 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects, and Forecasts
    • O31 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Innovation; Research and Development; Technological Change; Intellectual Property Rights - - - Innovation and Invention: Processes and Incentives
    • R11 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - General Regional Economics - - - Regional Economic Activity: Growth, Development, Environmental Issues, and Changes
    • R12 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - General Regional Economics - - - Size and Spatial Distributions of Regional Economic Activity; Interregional Trade (economic geography)
    • R23 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Household Analysis - - - Regional Migration; Regional Labor Markets; Population

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