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Refining Opportunity Cost Estimates of Not Adopting GM Cotton: An Application in Seven Sub-Saharan African Countries

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  • Antoine Bouët
  • Guillaume P. Gruère

Abstract

A computable general equilibrium model is applied to evaluate the opportunity costs of not adopting Bt cotton, a genetically-modified (GM) insect resistant cotton, in Benin, Burkina-Faso, Mali, Senegal, Togo, Tanzania, and Uganda when it is adopted in other countries. Our model uniquely employs country-specific partial adoption rates and factor-biased productivity shocks in the cotton and oilseed sectors of all adopting regions. Assuming a 50% adoption rate, the opportunity cost of not adopting Bt cotton in the seven surveyed countries amounts to $41 million per year, which is a significant but lower cost than that suggested by the results of previous studies. Trade liberalization only marginally increases this estimate.

Suggested Citation

  • Antoine Bouët & Guillaume P. Gruère, 2011. "Refining Opportunity Cost Estimates of Not Adopting GM Cotton: An Application in Seven Sub-Saharan African Countries," Applied Economic Perspectives and Policy, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 33(2), pages 260-279.
    • Handle: RePEc:oup:apecpp:v:33:y:2011:i:2:p:260-279.
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    1. Kym Anderson & Ernesto Valenzuela & Lee Ann Jackson, 2008. "Recent and Prospective Adoption of Genetically Modified Cotton: A Global Computable General Equilibrium Analysis of Economic Impacts," Economic Development and Cultural Change, University of Chicago Press, vol. 56(2), pages 265-296, January.
    2. Bouët, Antoine & Laborde Debucquet, David, 2017. "Assessing the potential cost of a failed Doha Round:," IFPRI book chapters, in: Bouët, Antoine & Laborde Debucquet, David (ed.), Agriculture, development, and the global trading system: 2000– 2015, chapter 6, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
    3. Antoine Bouët & Jean‐Christophe Bureau & Yvan Decreux & Sébastien Jean, 2005. "Multilateral Agricultural Trade Liberalisation: The Contrasting Fortunes of Developing Countries in the Doha Round," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 28(9), pages 1329-1354, September.
    4. Kym Anderson & Ernesto Valenzuela, 2007. "The World Trade Organisation's Doha Cotton Initiative: A Tale of Two Issues," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 30(8), pages 1281-1304, August.
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    8. Antoine Bouët & Simon Mevel & David Orden, 2007. "More or Less Ambition in the Doha Round: Winners and Losers from Trade Liberalisation with a Development Perspective," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 30(8), pages 1253-1280, August.
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    13. Antoine BOUËT & HUGO VALIN & Betina DIMARANAN, 2009. "Biofuels in the world markets: A Computable General Equilibrium assessment of environmental costs related to land use changes," Working Papers 6, CATT - UPPA - Université de Pau et des Pays de l'Adour, revised Nov 2009.
    14. Antoine Bouët & David Laborde, 2010. "Assessing the Potential Cost of a Failed Doha," Post-Print hal-01881925, HAL.
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    17. William H. Kaye-Blake & Caroline M. Saunders & Selim Cagatay, 2008. "Genetic Modification Technology and Producer Returns: The Impacts of Productivity, Preferences, and Technology Uptake," Review of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 30(4), pages 692-710.
    18. Valdete Berisha-Krasniqi & Antoine Bouët & Simon Mevel, 2008. "Les accords de partenariat économique. Quels enjeux pour le Sénégal ?," Revue de l'OFCE, Presses de Sciences-Po, vol. 0(4), pages 65-116.
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    Cited by:

    1. Frisvold, George & Reeves, Jeanne, 2015. "Genetically Modified Crops: International Trade And Trade Policy Effects," International Journal of Food and Agricultural Economics (IJFAEC), Alanya Alaaddin Keykubat University, Department of Economics and Finance, vol. 3(2), pages 1-13, April.
    2. Falck-Zepeda, Jose Benjamin & Gruère, Guillaume P. & Sithole-Niang, Idah (ed.), 2013. "Genetically modified crops in Africa: Economic and policy lessons from countries south of the Sahara," IFPRI books, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI), number 978-0-89629-795-1.

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