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GM Cotton Adoption, Recent and Prospective: A Global CGE Analysis of Economic Impacts

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  • Anderson, Kym
  • Jackson, Lee Ann
  • Valenzuela, Ernesto

Abstract

This paper provides estimates of the economic impact of initial adoption of genetically modified (GM) cotton and of its potential impacts beyond the few countries where it is currently common. Use is made of the latest version of the GTAP database and model. Our results suggest that by following the lead of China and South Africa, adoption of GM cotton varieties by other developing countries ? especially in Sub-Saharan Africa ? could provide even larger proportionate gains to farmer and national welfare than in those first-adopting countries. Furthermore, those estimated gains are shown to exceed those from a successful campaign under the WTO?s Doha Development Agenda to reduce/remove cotton subsidies and import tariffs globally.

Suggested Citation

  • Anderson, Kym & Jackson, Lee Ann & Valenzuela, Ernesto, 2006. "GM Cotton Adoption, Recent and Prospective: A Global CGE Analysis of Economic Impacts," CEPR Discussion Papers 5568, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    • Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:5568
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Matin Qaim & Arjunan Subramanian & Gopal Naik & David Zilberman, 2006. "Adoption of Bt Cotton and Impact Variability: Insights from India," Review of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 28(1), pages 48-58.
    2. Kym Anderson & Ernesto Valenzuela, 2007. "The World Trade Organisation's Doha Cotton Initiative: A Tale of Two Issues," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 30(8), pages 1281-1304, August.
    3. Hertel, Thomas W & Masters, William A & Elbehri, Aziz, 1998. "The Uruguay Round and Africa: A Global, General Equilibrium Analysis," Journal of African Economies, Centre for the Study of African Economies, vol. 7(2), pages 208-236, July.
    4. Will Martin & Kym Anderson, 2006. "Agricultural Trade Reform and the Doha Development Agenda," World Bank Publications - Books, The World Bank Group, number 6889.
    5. Anderson, Kym & Nielsen, Chantal, 2004. "Economic Effects of Agricultural Biotechnology Research in the Presence of Price-Distorting Policies," Journal of Economic Integration, Center for Economic Integration, Sejong University, vol. 19, pages 374-394.
    6. John Baffes, 2005. "The "Cotton Problem"," The World Bank Research Observer, World Bank, vol. 20(1), pages 109-144.
    7. Anderson, Kym & Valenzuela, Ernesto, 2006. "WTO's Doha Cotton Initiative: A Tale of Two Issues," CEPR Discussion Papers 5567, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    8. Julian M. Alston & Geoff W. Edwards & Professor John W. Freebairn, 1988. "Market Distortions and Benefits from Research," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 70(2), pages 281-288.
    9. Hertel, Thomas, 1997. "Global Trade Analysis: Modeling and applications," GTAP Books, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Department of Agricultural Economics, Purdue University, number 7685, December.
    10. Richard Bennett & Uma Kambhampati & Stephen Morse & Yousouf Ismael, 2006. "Farm-Level Economic Performance of Genetically Modified Cotton in Maharashtra, India," Review of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 28(1), pages 59-71.
    11. Huang, Jikun & Hu, Ruifa & van Meijl, Hans & van Tongeren, Frank, 2004. "Biotechnology boosts to crop productivity in China: trade and welfare implications," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 75(1), pages 27-54, October.
    12. Kym Anderson & Lee Ann Jackson, 2005. "Some Implications of GM Food Technology Policies for Sub-Saharan Africa," Journal of African Economies, Centre for the Study of African Economies, vol. 14(3), pages 385-410, September.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Mohamed Chemingui, 2010. "Poverty Effects from Reforming the Common Agriculture Policy in A Spatially Heterogeneous Agricultural Economy," Working Papers 573, Economic Research Forum, revised 11 Jan 2010.
    2. Kitou, Elisavet & Philippidis, George, 2010. "A quantitative economic assessment of a Canada-EU Comprehensive Economic Trade Agreement," Conference papers 331998, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.
    3. Gruere, Guillaume & Bouet, Antoine & Mevel, Simon, 2007. "Genetically modified food and international trade: The case of India, Bangladesh, Indonesia, and the Philippines," IFPRI discussion papers 740, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
    4. Anderson, Kym & Valenzuela, Ernesto, 2006. "WTO's Doha Cotton Initiative: A Tale of Two Issues," CEPR Discussion Papers 5567, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    5. Robinson, Sherman & Burfisher, Mary & McDonald, Scott & Thierfelder, Karen, 2006. "Deep Integration and Trade Productivity Links: Tentative Lessons from CGE International Trade Models," Conference papers 331517, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.
    6. Debnath, Deepayan & Elobeid, Amani E. & Carriquiry, Miguel A., 2013. "Modeling the impacts of adopting Bt cotton by African countries on world fiber and bioenergy crop markets," 2013 Annual Meeting, August 4-6, 2013, Washington, D.C. 149828, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Gmos; Cotton biotechnology; Computable general equilibrium modeling; Economic welfare; Subsidy; Tariff reform;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D58 - Microeconomics - - General Equilibrium and Disequilibrium - - - Computable and Other Applied General Equilibrium Models
    • F17 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Forecasting and Simulation
    • Q16 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture - - - R&D; Agricultural Technology; Biofuels; Agricultural Extension Services
    • Q17 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture - - - Agriculture in International Trade

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