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The Rushin Index: A Weekly Indicator of Czech Economic Activity

Author

Listed:
  • Tomas Adam
  • Ondrej Michalek
  • Ales Michl
  • Eva Slezakova

Abstract

We introduce the Rushin, a weekly index of Czech economic activity. The index is based on alternative, high-frequency indicators and standard, low-frequency macroeconomic data. Various information from the economy is aggregated to extract a signal about real-time dynamics in the real economy. Although the information on the GDP growth rate is not used directly in the construction of the index, the indicator fits GDP data well, particularly in turbulent times such as the global financial crisis and the COVID-19 crisis. Therefore, it can be used for the real-time monitoring of economic activity, nowcasting and identifying turning points in the economy. The name of the index alludes to the name of Czechoslovakia's first finance minister Alois Rasin and the timeliness (rush-) of the index (-in).

Suggested Citation

  • Tomas Adam & Ondrej Michalek & Ales Michl & Eva Slezakova, 2021. "The Rushin Index: A Weekly Indicator of Czech Economic Activity," Working Papers 2021/4, Czech National Bank.
    • Handle: RePEc:cnb:wpaper:2021/4
    as

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    File URL: https://www.cnb.cz/export/sites/cnb/en/economic-research/.galleries/research_publications/cnb_wp/cnbwp_2021_04.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Arthur F. Burns & Wesley C. Mitchell, 1946. "Measuring Business Cycles," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number burn46-1.
    2. Tomas Adam & Filip Novotny, 2018. "Assessing the External Demand of the Czech Economy: Nowcasting Foreign GDP Using Bridge Equations," Working Papers 2018/18, Czech National Bank.
    3. Charles S. Gascon & Amelia Schmitz, 2020. "Using High-Frequency Data to Track the Regional Economy," The Regional Economist, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, vol. 28(3), August.
    4. Sophia Chen & Ms. Deniz O Igan & Mr. Nicola Pierri & Mr. Andrea F Presbitero, 2020. "Tracking the Economic Impact of COVID-19 and Mitigation Policies in Europe and the United States," IMF Working Papers 2020/125, International Monetary Fund.
    5. Nicolas Woloszko, 2020. "Tracking activity in real time with Google Trends," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 1634, OECD Publishing.
    6. Gerhard Fenz & Helmut Stix, 2021. "Monitoring the economy in real time with the weekly OeNB GDP indicator: background, experience and outlook," Monetary Policy & the Economy, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank), issue Q4/20-Q1/, pages 17-40.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    COVID-19 crisis; economic activity index; high-frequency indicators; nowcasting;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • C43 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics - - - Index Numbers and Aggregation
    • E01 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General - - - Measurement and Data on National Income and Product Accounts and Wealth; Environmental Accounts
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles

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