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African food system and biodiversity mainly affected by urbanization via dietary shifts

Author

Listed:
  • Koen De Vos

    (KU Leuven
    Research Foundation Flanders (FWO)
    International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA))

  • Charlotte Janssens

    (KU Leuven
    Research Foundation Flanders (FWO)
    International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA))

  • Liesbet Jacobs

    (KU Leuven
    University of Amsterdam)

  • Benjamin Campforts

    (VU University Amsterdam)

  • Esther Boere

    (International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA)
    VU University Amsterdam)

  • Marta Kozicka

    (International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA))

  • David Leclère

    (International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA))

  • Petr Havlík

    (International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA))

  • Lisa-Marie Hemerijckx

    (KU Leuven
    Research Foundation Flanders (FWO))

  • Anton Van Rompaey

    (KU Leuven)

  • Miet Maertens

    (KU Leuven)

  • Gerard Govers

    (KU Leuven)

Abstract

The rapid urbanization in Africa profoundly affects local food and ecological systems. According to earlier research, urbanization may cause food production and biodiversity losses as agricultural or natural lands are absorbed by expanding cities. Land-use displacement effects may buffer agricultural production losses or may lead to additional biodiversity losses but are often overlooked. Moreover, impacts of dietary changes associated with urbanization are rarely considered. To address this, we combined spatially explicit projections of African urban area expansion with observed rice consumption shifts to inform a partial equilibrium model (the Global Biosphere Management Model). We demonstrate the importance of displacement effects to identify potential food production or biodiversity issues until 2050 and argue for their integration in land-use planning and policymaking across spatial scales. We identify that because of agricultural displacement, the impact of urban area expansion on food production losses is probably limited (

Suggested Citation

  • Koen De Vos & Charlotte Janssens & Liesbet Jacobs & Benjamin Campforts & Esther Boere & Marta Kozicka & David Leclère & Petr Havlík & Lisa-Marie Hemerijckx & Anton Van Rompaey & Miet Maertens & Gerard, 2024. "African food system and biodiversity mainly affected by urbanization via dietary shifts," Nature Sustainability, Nature, vol. 7(7), pages 869-878, July.
  • Handle: RePEc:nat:natsus:v:7:y:2024:i:7:d:10.1038_s41893-024-01362-2
    DOI: 10.1038/s41893-024-01362-2
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    References listed on IDEAS

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