IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/nat/natsus/v6y2023i10d10.1038_s41893-023-01166-w.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Spatially differentiated nitrogen supply is key in a global food–fertilizer price crisis

Author

Listed:
  • Sieglinde Snapp

    (International Maize and Wheat Improvement Center (CIMMYT), El Batán)

  • Tek Bahadur Sapkota

    (International Maize and Wheat Improvement Center (CIMMYT), El Batán)

  • Jordan Chamberlin

    (International Maize and Wheat Improvement Center (CIMMYT))

  • Cindy Marie Cox

    (Private consultancy)

  • Samuel Gameda

    (International Maize and Wheat Improvement Center (CIMMYT))

  • Mangi Lal Jat

    (International Crops Research Institute for the Semi-Arid Tropics (ICRISAT))

  • Paswel Marenya

    (International Maize and Wheat Improvement Center (CIMMYT))

  • Khondoker Abdul Mottaleb

    (University of Arkansas)

  • Christine Negra

    (Versant Vision LLC)

  • Kalimuthu Senthilkumar

    (Africa Rice Center (AfricaRice))

  • Tesfaye Shiferaw Sida

    (International Maize and Wheat Improvement Center (CIMMYT))

  • Upendra Singh

    (International Fertilizer Development Center)

  • Zachary P. Stewart

    (United States Agency for International Development)

  • Kindie Tesfaye

    (International Maize and Wheat Improvement Center (CIMMYT))

  • Bram Govaerts

    (International Maize and Wheat Improvement Center (CIMMYT), El Batán)

Abstract

A regional geopolitical conflict and sudden massive supply disruptions have revealed vulnerabilities in our global fuel–fertilizer–food nexus. As nitrogen (N) fertilizer price spikes threaten food security, differentiated responses are required to maintain staple cereal yields across over- and underfertilized agricultural systems. Through integrated management of organic and inorganic N sources in high- to low-input cereal production systems, we estimate potential total N-fertilizer savings of 11% in India, 49% in Ethiopia and 44% in Malawi. Shifting to more cost-effective, high-N fertilizer (such as urea), combined with compost and integration of legumes, can optimize N in N-deficient systems. Better targeted and more efficient N-fertilizer use will benefit systems with surplus N. Geospatially differentiated fertilization strategies should prioritize high-N fertilizer supply to low-yield, N-deficient locations and balanced fertilization of N, P, K and micronutrients in high-yield systems. Nationally, governments can invest in extension and realign subsidies to enable and incentivize improved N management at the farm level.

Suggested Citation

  • Sieglinde Snapp & Tek Bahadur Sapkota & Jordan Chamberlin & Cindy Marie Cox & Samuel Gameda & Mangi Lal Jat & Paswel Marenya & Khondoker Abdul Mottaleb & Christine Negra & Kalimuthu Senthilkumar & Tes, 2023. "Spatially differentiated nitrogen supply is key in a global food–fertilizer price crisis," Nature Sustainability, Nature, vol. 6(10), pages 1268-1278, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:natsus:v:6:y:2023:i:10:d:10.1038_s41893-023-01166-w
    DOI: 10.1038/s41893-023-01166-w
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41893-023-01166-w
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: Access to the full text of the articles in this series is restricted.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1038/s41893-023-01166-w?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. M. Springmann & F. Freund, 2022. "Options for reforming agricultural subsidies from health, climate, and economic perspectives," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 13(1), pages 1-7, December.
    2. Oyakhilomen Oyinbo & Jordan Chamberlin & Tahirou Abdoulaye & Miet Maertens, 2022. "Digital extension, price risk, and farm performance: experimental evidence from Nigeria," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 104(2), pages 831-852, March.
    3. Jayne, Thomas S. & Mason, Nicole M. & Burke, William J. & Ariga, Joshua, 2018. "Review: Taking stock of Africa’s second-generation agricultural input subsidy programs," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 75(C), pages 1-14.
    4. Burke, William J. & Jayne, Thom S. & Snapp, Sieglinde S., 2022. "Nitrogen efficiency by soil quality and management regimes on Malawi farms: Can fertilizer use remain profitable?," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 152(C).
    5. Feliciano, Diana & Nayak, Dali Rani & Vetter, Sylvia Helga & Hillier, Jon, 2017. "CCAFS-MOT - A tool for farmers, extension services and policy-advisors to identify mitigation options for agriculture," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 154(C), pages 100-111.
    6. T. Brunelle & P. Dumas & F. Souty & B. Dorin & F. Nadaud, 2015. "Evaluating the impact of rising fertilizer prices on crop yields," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 46(5), pages 653-666, September.
    7. Deepak K. Ray & Navin Ramankutty & Nathaniel D. Mueller & Paul C. West & Jonathan A. Foley, 2012. "Recent patterns of crop yield growth and stagnation," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 3(1), pages 1-7, January.
    8. Chloe MacLaren & Andrew Mead & Derk Balen & Lieven Claessens & Ararso Etana & Janjo Haan & Wiepie Haagsma & Ortrud Jäck & Thomas Keller & Johan Labuschagne & Åsa Myrbeck & Magdalena Necpalova & Genero, 2022. "Long-term evidence for ecological intensification as a pathway to sustainable agriculture," Nature Sustainability, Nature, vol. 5(9), pages 770-779, September.
    9. Mohamed Behnassi & Mahjoub El Haiba, 2022. "Implications of the Russia–Ukraine war for global food security," Nature Human Behaviour, Nature, vol. 6(6), pages 754-755, June.
    10. Nathaniel D. Mueller & James S. Gerber & Matt Johnston & Deepak K. Ray & Navin Ramankutty & Jonathan A. Foley, 2012. "Closing yield gaps through nutrient and water management," Nature, Nature, vol. 490(7419), pages 254-257, October.
    11. David Tilman & Kenneth G. Cassman & Pamela A. Matson & Rosamond Naylor & Stephen Polasky, 2002. "Agricultural sustainability and intensive production practices," Nature, Nature, vol. 418(6898), pages 671-677, August.
    12. Catherine Ragasa & Antony Chapoto, 2017. "Moving in the right direction? The role of price subsidies in fertilizer use and maize productivity in Ghana," Food Security: The Science, Sociology and Economics of Food Production and Access to Food, Springer;The International Society for Plant Pathology, vol. 9(2), pages 329-353, April.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Yu, Wenjia & Yue, Yaojie & Wang, Fangxiong, 2022. "The spatial-temporal coupling pattern of grain yield and fertilization in the North China plain," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 196(C).
    2. Cao, Juan & Zhang, Zhao & Tao, Fulu & Chen, Yi & Luo, Xiangzhong & Xie, Jun, 2023. "Forecasting global crop yields based on El Nino Southern Oscillation early signals," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 205(C).
    3. Tiziano Gomiero, 2016. "Soil Degradation, Land Scarcity and Food Security: Reviewing a Complex Challenge," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 8(3), pages 1-41, March.
    4. Zhang, Bangbang & Li, Xian & Chen, Haibin & Niu, Wenhao & Kong, Xiangbin & Yu, Qiang & Zhao, Minjuan & Xia, Xianli, 2022. "Identifying opportunities to close yield gaps in China by use of certificated cultivars to estimate potential productivity," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 117(C).
    5. Dapeng WANG & Liang ZHENG & Songdong GU & Yuefeng SHI & Long LIANG & Fanqiao MENG & Yanbin GUO & Xiaotang JU & Wenliang WU, 2018. "Soil nitrate accumulation and leaching in conventional, optimized and organic cropping systems," Plant, Soil and Environment, Czech Academy of Agricultural Sciences, vol. 64(4), pages 156-163.
    6. Fritz, Steffen & See, Linda & Bayas, Juan Carlos Laso & Waldner, François & Jacques, Damien & Becker-Reshef, Inbal & Whitcraft, Alyssa & Baruth, Bettina & Bonifacio, Rogerio & Crutchfield, Jim & Rembo, 2019. "A comparison of global agricultural monitoring systems and current gaps," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 168(C), pages 258-272.
    7. Anika Reetsch & Kai Schwärzel & Christina Dornack & Shadrack Stephene & Karl-Heinz Feger, 2020. "Optimising Nutrient Cycles to Improve Food Security in Smallholder Farming Families—A Case Study from Banana-Coffee-Based Farming in the Kagera Region, NW Tanzania," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(21), pages 1-34, November.
    8. Zhuang, Minghao & Liu, Yize & Yang, Yi & Zhang, Qingsong & Ying, Hao & Yin, Yulong & Cui, Zhenling, 2022. "The sustainability of staple crops in China can be substantially improved through localized strategies," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 154(C).
    9. Larson,Donald F. & Muraoka,Rie & Otsuka,Keijiro, 2016. "On the central role of small farms in African rural development strategies," Policy Research Working Paper Series 7710, The World Bank.
    10. Xinyi Li & Xiong Wang & Xiaoqing Song, 2021. "Impacts of Agricultural Capitalization on Regional Paddy Field Change: A Production-Factor Substitution Perspective," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 18(4), pages 1-18, February.
    11. Veronique Theriault & Melinda Smale & Hamza Haider, 2018. "Economic incentives to use fertilizer on maize under differing agro-ecological conditions in Burkina Faso," Food Security: The Science, Sociology and Economics of Food Production and Access to Food, Springer;The International Society for Plant Pathology, vol. 10(5), pages 1263-1277, October.
    12. Jindo, Keiji & Schut, Antonius G.T. & Langeveld, Johannes W.A., 2020. "Sustainable intensification in Western Kenya: Who will benefit?," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 182(C).
    13. Gao, Yukun & Zhao, Hongfang & Zhao, Chuang & Hu, Guohua & Zhang, Han & Liu, Xue & Li, Nan & Hou, Haiyan & Li, Xia, 2022. "Spatial and temporal variations of maize and wheat yield gaps and their relationships with climate in China," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 270(C).
    14. Gou, Fang & Yin, Wen & Hong, Yu & van der Werf, Wopke & Chai, Qiang & Heerink, Nico & van Ittersum, Martin K., 2017. "On yield gaps and yield gains in intercropping: Opportunities for increasing grain production in northwest China," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 151(C), pages 96-105.
    15. Arata, Linda & Fabrizi, Enrico & Sckokai, Paolo, 2020. "A worldwide analysis of trend in crop yields and yield variability: Evidence from FAO data," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 90(C), pages 190-208.
    16. Min Yang & Quan Long & Wenli Li & Zhichao Wang & Xinhua He & Jie Wang & Xiaozhong Wang & Huaye Xiong & Chaoyi Guo & Guancheng Zhang & Bin Luo & Jun Qiu & Xinping Chen & Fusuo Zhang & Xiaojun Shi & Yue, 2020. "Mapping the Environmental Cost of a Typical Citrus-Producing County in China: Hotspot and Optimization," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(5), pages 1-18, February.
    17. Matteo Coronese & Martina Occelli & Francesco Lamperti & Andrea Roventini, 2024. "Towards sustainable agriculture: behaviors, spatial dynamics and policy in an evolutionary agent-based model," LEM Papers Series 2024/05, Laboratory of Economics and Management (LEM), Sant'Anna School of Advanced Studies, Pisa, Italy.
    18. Pinki Mondal & Meha Jain & Andrew Robertson & Gillian Galford & Christopher Small & Ruth DeFries, 2014. "Winter crop sensitivity to inter-annual climate variability in central India," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 126(1), pages 61-76, September.
    19. Hepburn, Cameron & Teytelboym, Alexander & Cohen, Francois, 2018. "Is Natural Capital Really Substitutable?," INET Oxford Working Papers 2018-12, Institute for New Economic Thinking at the Oxford Martin School, University of Oxford.
    20. Vassilis Aschonitis & Christos G. Karydas & Miltos Iatrou & Spiros Mourelatos & Irini Metaxa & Panagiotis Tziachris & George Iatrou, 2019. "An Integrated Approach to Assessing the Soil Quality and Nutritional Status of Large and Long-Term Cultivated Rice Agro-Ecosystems," Agriculture, MDPI, vol. 9(4), pages 1-25, April.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:nat:natsus:v:6:y:2023:i:10:d:10.1038_s41893-023-01166-w. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.nature.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.