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Estimating the optimal age for infant measles vaccination

Author

Listed:
  • Elizabeth Goult

    (Campus Charité Mitte)

  • Laura Andrea Barrero Guevara

    (Campus Charité Mitte
    Charité—Universitätsmedizin Berlin)

  • Michael Briga

    (Campus Charité Mitte
    University of Turku
    Roskilde University
    Charité—Universitätsmedizin Berlin)

  • Matthieu Domenech de Cellès

    (Campus Charité Mitte)

Abstract

The persistence of measles in many countries demonstrates large immunity gaps, resulting from incomplete or ineffective immunization with measles-containing vaccines (MCVs). MCV impact is determined, in part, by vaccination age. Infants who receive dose 1 (MCV1) at older ages have a reduced risk of vaccine failure, but also an increased risk of contracting infection before vaccination. Here, we designed a new method—based on a mathematical transmission model incorporating realistic vaccination delays and age variations in MCV1 effectiveness—to capture the MCV1 age risk trade-off and estimate the optimal age for recommending MCV1. We applied this method to a range of synthetic populations representing lower- and higher-income populations. We predict a large heterogeneity in the optimal MCV1 ages (range: 6–20 months), contrasting the homogeneity of observed recommendations worldwide. Furthermore, we show that the optimal age depends on the local epidemiology of measles, with a lower optimal age predicted in populations having lower vaccination coverage or suffering higher transmission. Overall, our results suggest the scope for public health authorities to tailor the recommended schedule for better measles control.

Suggested Citation

  • Elizabeth Goult & Laura Andrea Barrero Guevara & Michael Briga & Matthieu Domenech de Cellès, 2024. "Estimating the optimal age for infant measles vaccination," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 15(1), pages 1-14, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcom:v:15:y:2024:i:1:d:10.1038_s41467-024-53415-x
    DOI: 10.1038/s41467-024-53415-x
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    References listed on IDEAS

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