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Abrupt increase in Arctic-Subarctic wildfires caused by future permafrost thaw

Author

Listed:
  • In-Won Kim

    (Institute for Basic Science
    Pusan National University)

  • Axel Timmermann

    (Institute for Basic Science
    Pusan National University)

  • Ji-Eun Kim

    (Institute for Basic Science
    Pusan National University)

  • Keith B. Rodgers

    (Tohoku University)

  • Sun-Seon Lee

    (Institute for Basic Science
    Pusan National University)

  • Hanna Lee

    (Norwegian University of Science and Technology)

  • William R. Wieder

    (National Center for Atmospheric Research
    University of Colorado Boulder)

Abstract

Unabated 21st-century climate change will accelerate Arctic-Subarctic permafrost thaw which can intensify microbial degradation of carbon-rich soils, methane emissions, and global warming. The impact of permafrost thaw on future Arctic-Subarctic wildfires and the associated release of greenhouse gases and aerosols is less well understood. Here we present a comprehensive analysis of the effect of future permafrost thaw on land surface processes in the Arctic-Subarctic region using the CESM2 large ensemble forced by the SSP3-7.0 greenhouse gas emission scenario. Analyzing 50 greenhouse warming simulations, which capture the coupling between permafrost, hydrology, and atmosphere, we find that projected rapid permafrost thaw leads to massive soil drying, surface warming, and reduction of relative humidity over the Arctic-Subarctic region. These combined processes lead to nonlinear late-21st-century regime shifts in the coupled soil-hydrology system and rapid intensification of wildfires in western Siberia and Canada.

Suggested Citation

  • In-Won Kim & Axel Timmermann & Ji-Eun Kim & Keith B. Rodgers & Sun-Seon Lee & Hanna Lee & William R. Wieder, 2024. "Abrupt increase in Arctic-Subarctic wildfires caused by future permafrost thaw," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 15(1), pages 1-11, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcom:v:15:y:2024:i:1:d:10.1038_s41467-024-51471-x
    DOI: 10.1038/s41467-024-51471-x
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    References listed on IDEAS

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