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Fast response of cold ice-rich permafrost in northeast Siberia to a warming climate

Author

Listed:
  • Jan Nitzbon

    (Alfred Wegener Institute Helmholtz Centre for Polar and Marine Research
    Humboldt-Universität zu Berlin
    University of Oslo)

  • Sebastian Westermann

    (University of Oslo)

  • Moritz Langer

    (Alfred Wegener Institute Helmholtz Centre for Polar and Marine Research
    Humboldt-Universität zu Berlin)

  • Léo C. P. Martin

    (University of Oslo)

  • Jens Strauss

    (Alfred Wegener Institute Helmholtz Centre for Polar and Marine Research)

  • Sebastian Laboor

    (Alfred Wegener Institute Helmholtz Centre for Polar and Marine Research)

  • Julia Boike

    (Alfred Wegener Institute Helmholtz Centre for Polar and Marine Research
    Humboldt-Universität zu Berlin)

Abstract

The ice- and organic-rich permafrost of the northeast Siberian Arctic lowlands (NESAL) has been projected to remain stable beyond 2100, even under pessimistic climate warming scenarios. However, the numerical models used for these projections lack processes which induce widespread landscape change termed thermokarst, precluding realistic simulation of permafrost thaw in such ice-rich terrain. Here, we consider thermokarst-inducing processes in a numerical model and show that substantial permafrost degradation, involving widespread landscape collapse, is projected for the NESAL under strong warming (RCP8.5), while thawing is moderated by stabilizing feedbacks under moderate warming (RCP4.5). We estimate that by 2100 thaw-affected carbon could be up to three-fold (twelve-fold) under RCP4.5 (RCP8.5), of what is projected if thermokarst-inducing processes are ignored. Our study provides progress towards robust assessments of the global permafrost carbon–climate feedback by Earth system models, and underlines the importance of mitigating climate change to limit its impacts on permafrost ecosystems.

Suggested Citation

  • Jan Nitzbon & Sebastian Westermann & Moritz Langer & Léo C. P. Martin & Jens Strauss & Sebastian Laboor & Julia Boike, 2020. "Fast response of cold ice-rich permafrost in northeast Siberia to a warming climate," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 11(1), pages 1-11, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcom:v:11:y:2020:i:1:d:10.1038_s41467-020-15725-8
    DOI: 10.1038/s41467-020-15725-8
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    Cited by:

    1. Rúna Í. Magnússon & Alexandra Hamm & Sergey V. Karsanaev & Juul Limpens & David Kleijn & Andrew Frampton & Trofim C. Maximov & Monique M. P. D. Heijmans, 2022. "Extremely wet summer events enhance permafrost thaw for multiple years in Siberian tundra," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 13(1), pages 1-10, December.
    2. Rashit M. Hantemirov & Christophe Corona & Sébastien Guillet & Stepan G. Shiyatov & Markus Stoffel & Timothy J. Osborn & Thomas M. Melvin & Ludmila A. Gorlanova & Vladimir V. Kukarskih & Alexander Y. , 2022. "Current Siberian heating is unprecedented during the past seven millennia," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 13(1), pages 1-8, December.
    3. Jens Strauss & Christina Biasi & Tina Sanders & Benjamin W. Abbott & Thomas Schneider Deimling & Carolina Voigt & Matthias Winkel & Maija E. Marushchak & Dan Kou & Matthias Fuchs & Marcus A. Horn & Lo, 2022. "A globally relevant stock of soil nitrogen in the Yedoma permafrost domain," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 13(1), pages 1-9, December.
    4. Qianhan Wu & Linghong Ke & Jida Wang & Tamlin M. Pavelsky & George H. Allen & Yongwei Sheng & Xuejun Duan & Yunqiang Zhu & Jin Wu & Lei Wang & Kai Liu & Tan Chen & Wensong Zhang & Chenyu Fan & Bin Yon, 2023. "Satellites reveal hotspots of global river extent change," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 14(1), pages 1-13, December.
    5. Moritz Langer & Thomas Schneider Deimling & Sebastian Westermann & Rebecca Rolph & Ralph Rutte & Sofia Antonova & Volker Rachold & Michael Schultz & Alexander Oehme & Guido Grosse, 2023. "Thawing permafrost poses environmental threat to thousands of sites with legacy industrial contamination," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 14(1), pages 1-11, December.
    6. Yumeng Wang & Jingyan Ma & Lijuan Zhang & Yutao Huang & Xihui Guo & Yiping Yang & Enbo Zhao & Yufeng Zhao & Yue Chu & Meiyi Jiang & Nan Wang, 2022. "Spatial Distribution of, and Variations in, Cold Regions in China from 1961 to 2019," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(1), pages 1-12, January.
    7. M. E. Marushchak & J. Kerttula & K. Diáková & A. Faguet & J. Gil & G. Grosse & C. Knoblauch & N. Lashchinskiy & P. J. Martikainen & A. Morgenstern & M. Nykamb & J. G. Ronkainen & H. M. P. Siljanen & L, 2021. "Thawing Yedoma permafrost is a neglected nitrous oxide source," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 12(1), pages 1-10, December.
    8. K. M. Walter Anthony & P. Anthony & N. Hasson & C. Edgar & O. Sivan & E. Eliani-Russak & O. Bergman & B. J. Minsley & S. R. James & N. J. Pastick & A. Kholodov & S. Zimov & E. Euskirchen & M. S. Bret-, 2024. "Upland Yedoma taliks are an unpredicted source of atmospheric methane," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 15(1), pages 1-17, December.
    9. Liu, Zhenhai & Chen, Bin & Wang, Shaoqiang & Wang, Qinyi & Chen, Jinghua & Shi, Weibo & Wang, Xiaobo & Liu, Yuanyuan & Tu, Yongkai & Huang, Mei & Wang, Junbang & Wang, Zhaosheng & Li, Hui & Zhu, Tongt, 2021. "The impacts of vegetation on the soil surface freezing-thawing processes at permafrost southern edge simulated by an improved process-based ecosystem model," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 456(C).

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