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Climate impacts of critical mineral supply chain bottlenecks for electric vehicle deployment

Author

Listed:
  • Lucas Woodley

    (Harvard University)

  • Chung Yi See

    (Harvard College)

  • Peter Cook

    (Breakthrough Institute)

  • Megan Yeo

    (Harvard College)

  • Daniel S. Palmer

    (Groton School)

  • Laurena Huh

    (Massachusetts Institute of Technology)

  • Seaver Wang

    (Breakthrough Institute)

  • Ashley Nunes

    (Harvard College
    Breakthrough Institute
    Harvard Law School)

Abstract

New tailpipe emissions standards aim to increase electric vehicle (EV) sales in the United States. Here, we analyze the associated critical mineral supply chain constraints and enumerate the climate consequences of these constraints. Our work yields five findings. First, the proposed standard necessitates replacing at least 10.21 million new internal combustion engine vehicles with EVs between 2027 and 2032. Second, based on economically viable and geologically available mineral reserves, manufacturing sufficient EVs is plausible and reduces up to 457.3 million tons of CO2e. Third, mineral production capacities in the United States and amongst allies support the deployment of 5.09 million vehicles between 2027 and 2032, well short of compliance target. Fourth, this shortfall produces at least 59.54 million tons of CO2e in lost lifecycle emissions benefits. Fifth, limited production of battery-grade graphite and cobalt may represent particularly profound constraints. Pathways that afford comparable emission reductions are subsequently explored.

Suggested Citation

  • Lucas Woodley & Chung Yi See & Peter Cook & Megan Yeo & Daniel S. Palmer & Laurena Huh & Seaver Wang & Ashley Nunes, 2024. "Climate impacts of critical mineral supply chain bottlenecks for electric vehicle deployment," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 15(1), pages 1-13, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcom:v:15:y:2024:i:1:d:10.1038_s41467-024-51152-9
    DOI: 10.1038/s41467-024-51152-9
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    References listed on IDEAS

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