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Future sea ice weakening amplifies wind-driven trends in surface stress and Arctic Ocean spin-up

Author

Listed:
  • Morven Muilwijk

    (Fram Centre)

  • Tore Hattermann

    (Fram Centre
    UiT - The Arctic University of Norway)

  • Torge Martin

    (GEOMAR Helmholtz Centre for Ocean Research)

  • Mats A. Granskog

    (Fram Centre)

Abstract

Arctic sea ice mediates atmosphere-ocean momentum transfer, which drives upper ocean circulation. How Arctic Ocean surface stress and velocity respond to sea ice decline and changing winds under global warming is unclear. Here we show that state-of-the-art climate models consistently predict an increase in future (2015–2100) ocean surface stress in response to increased surface wind speed, declining sea ice area, and a weaker ice pack. While wind speeds increase most during fall (+2.2% per decade), surface stress rises most in winter (+5.1% per decade) being amplified by reduced internal ice stress. This is because, as sea ice concentration decreases in a warming climate, less energy is dissipated by the weaker ice pack, resulting in more momentum transfer to the ocean. The increased momentum transfer accelerates Arctic Ocean surface velocity (+31–47% by 2100), leading to elevated ocean kinetic energy and enhanced vertical mixing. The enhanced surface stress also increases the Beaufort Gyre Ekman convergence and freshwater content, impacting Arctic marine ecosystems and the downstream ocean circulation. The impacts of projected changes are profound, but different and simplified model formulations of atmosphere-ice-ocean momentum transfer introduce considerable uncertainty, highlighting the need for improved coupling in climate models.

Suggested Citation

  • Morven Muilwijk & Tore Hattermann & Torge Martin & Mats A. Granskog, 2024. "Future sea ice weakening amplifies wind-driven trends in surface stress and Arctic Ocean spin-up," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 15(1), pages 1-15, December.
  • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcom:v:15:y:2024:i:1:d:10.1038_s41467-024-50874-0
    DOI: 10.1038/s41467-024-50874-0
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Katherine R. Barnhart & Christopher R. Miller & Irina Overeem & Jennifer E. Kay, 2016. "Mapping the future expansion of Arctic open water," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 6(3), pages 280-285, March.
    2. Hiroshi Sumata & Laura Steur & Dmitry V. Divine & Mats A. Granskog & Sebastian Gerland, 2023. "Regime shift in Arctic Ocean sea ice thickness," Nature, Nature, vol. 615(7952), pages 443-449, March.
    3. Yeon-Hee Kim & Seung-Ki Min & Nathan P. Gillett & Dirk Notz & Elizaveta Malinina, 2023. "Observationally-constrained projections of an ice-free Arctic even under a low emission scenario," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 14(1), pages 1-8, December.
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