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Regime shift in Arctic Ocean sea ice thickness

Author

Listed:
  • Hiroshi Sumata

    (Fram Centre)

  • Laura Steur

    (Fram Centre)

  • Dmitry V. Divine

    (Fram Centre)

  • Mats A. Granskog

    (Fram Centre)

  • Sebastian Gerland

    (Fram Centre)

Abstract

Manifestations of climate change are often shown as gradual changes in physical or biogeochemical properties1. Components of the climate system, however, can show stepwise shifts from one regime to another, as a nonlinear response of the system to a changing forcing2. Here we show that the Arctic sea ice regime shifted in 2007 from thicker and deformed to thinner and more uniform ice cover. Continuous sea ice monitoring in the Fram Strait over the last three decades revealed the shift. After the shift, the fraction of thick and deformed ice dropped by half and has not recovered to date. The timing of the shift was preceded by a two-step reduction in residence time of sea ice in the Arctic Basin, initiated first in 2005 and followed by 2007. We demonstrate that a simple model describing the stochastic process of dynamic sea ice thickening explains the observed ice thickness changes as a result of the reduced residence time. Our study highlights the long-lasting impact of climate change on the Arctic sea ice through reduced residence time and its connection to the coupled ocean–sea ice processes in the adjacent marginal seas and shelves of the Arctic Ocean.

Suggested Citation

  • Hiroshi Sumata & Laura Steur & Dmitry V. Divine & Mats A. Granskog & Sebastian Gerland, 2023. "Regime shift in Arctic Ocean sea ice thickness," Nature, Nature, vol. 615(7952), pages 443-449, March.
  • Handle: RePEc:nat:nature:v:615:y:2023:i:7952:d:10.1038_s41586-022-05686-x
    DOI: 10.1038/s41586-022-05686-x
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    Cited by:

    1. Morven Muilwijk & Tore Hattermann & Torge Martin & Mats A. Granskog, 2024. "Future sea ice weakening amplifies wind-driven trends in surface stress and Arctic Ocean spin-up," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 15(1), pages 1-15, December.
    2. Abhik Chakraborty, 2024. "Emplacing Ecological Grief in Last Chance Tourism: Cryospheric Change and Travel in the Arctic," Tourism and Hospitality, MDPI, vol. 5(2), pages 1-15, June.
    3. Binhe Luo & Dehai Luo & Aiguo Dai & Cunde Xiao & Ian Simmonds & Edward Hanna & James Overland & Jiaqi Shi & Xiaodan Chen & Yao Yao & Wansuo Duan & Yimin Liu & Qiang Zhang & Xiyan Xu & Yina Diao & Zhin, 2024. "Rapid summer Russian Arctic sea-ice loss enhances the risk of recent Eastern Siberian wildfires," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 15(1), pages 1-17, December.

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