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Safeguarding China’s long-term sustainability against systemic disruptors

Author

Listed:
  • Ke Li

    (Sichuan University)

  • Lei Gao

    (Waite Campus)

  • Zhaoxia Guo

    (Sichuan University)

  • Yucheng Dong

    (Sichuan University)

  • Enayat A. Moallemi

    (Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation (CSIRO))

  • Gang Kou

    (Xiangjiang Laboratory
    Faculty of Business Administration, Southwestern University of Finance and Economics)

  • Meiqian Chen

    (Sichuan University)

  • Wenhao Lin

    (Sichuan University)

  • Qi Liu

    (Sichuan University)

  • Michael Obersteiner

    (International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis
    University of Oxford)

  • Matteo Pedercini

    (Millennium Institute)

  • Brett A. Bryan

    (Deakin University)

Abstract

China’s long-term sustainability faces socioeconomic and environmental uncertainties. We identify five key systemic risk drivers, called disruptors, which could push China into a polycrisis: pandemic disease, ageing and shrinking population, deglobalization, climate change, and biodiversity loss. Using an integrated simulation model, we quantify the effects of these disruptors on the country’s long-term sustainability framed by 17 Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). Here we show that ageing and shrinking population, and climate change would be the two most influential disruptors on China’s long-term sustainability. The compound effects of all disruptors could result in up to 2.1 and 7.0 points decline in the China’s SDG score by 2030 and 2050, compared to the baseline with no disruptors and no additional sustainability policies. However, an integrated policy portfolio involving investment in education, healthcare, energy transition, water-use efficiency, ecological conservation and restoration could promote resilience against the compound effects and significantly improve China’s long-term sustainability.

Suggested Citation

  • Ke Li & Lei Gao & Zhaoxia Guo & Yucheng Dong & Enayat A. Moallemi & Gang Kou & Meiqian Chen & Wenhao Lin & Qi Liu & Michael Obersteiner & Matteo Pedercini & Brett A. Bryan, 2024. "Safeguarding China’s long-term sustainability against systemic disruptors," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 15(1), pages 1-10, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcom:v:15:y:2024:i:1:d:10.1038_s41467-024-49725-9
    DOI: 10.1038/s41467-024-49725-9
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