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Assessing the Policy gaps for achieving China’s climate targets in the Paris Agreement

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  • Kelly Sims Gallagher

    (Climate Policy Lab, The Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy, Tufts University)

  • Fang Zhang

    (Climate Policy Lab, The Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy, Tufts University)

  • Robbie Orvis

    (Energy Innovation)

  • Jeffrey Rissman

    (Energy Innovation)

  • Qiang Liu

    (National Center for Climate Change Strategy and International Cooperation)

Abstract

China committed to peak its carbon emissions around 2030, with best efforts to peak early, and also to achieve 20% non-fossil energy as a proportion of primary energy supply by 2030. These commitments were included in China’s nationally-determined contribution to the 2015 Paris Agreement on climate change. We develop and apply a mixed-method methodology for analyzing the likelihood of current Chinese policies reducing greenhouse gas emissions in accordance with China’s Paris commitments. We find that China is likely to peak its emissions well in advance of 2030 and achieve its non-fossil target conditional on full and effective implementation of all current policies, successful conclusion of power-sector reform, and full implementation of a national emissions-trading system (ETS) for the power and additional major industrial sectors after 2020. Several policy gaps are identified and discussed.

Suggested Citation

  • Kelly Sims Gallagher & Fang Zhang & Robbie Orvis & Jeffrey Rissman & Qiang Liu, 2019. "Assessing the Policy gaps for achieving China’s climate targets in the Paris Agreement," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 10(1), pages 1-10, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcom:v:10:y:2019:i:1:d:10.1038_s41467-019-09159-0
    DOI: 10.1038/s41467-019-09159-0
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    4. Ding, Rui & Wang, Xianjia & Liu, Yang & Zhao, Jinhua & Gu, Cuiling, 2023. "Evolutionary games with environmental feedbacks under an external incentive mechanism," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 169(C).
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    8. Zhang, Bin & Niu, Niu & Li, Hao & Wang, Zhaohua, 2023. "Assessing the efforts of coal phaseout for carbon neutrality in China," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 352(C).
    9. Liu, Yinshan & Wang, Yuanfeng & Shi, Chengcheng & Zhang, Weijun & Luo, Wei & Wang, Jingjing & Li, Keping & Yeung, Ngai & Kite, Steve, 2022. "Assessing the CO2 reduction target gap and sustainability for bridges in China by 2040," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 154(C).
    10. Castrejon-Campos, Omar & Aye, Lu & Hui, Felix Kin Peng & Vaz-Serra, Paulo, 2022. "Economic and environmental impacts of public investment in clean energy RD&D," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 168(C).
    11. Wu, Shimei & Chen, Zhan-Ming, 2023. "Carbon inequality in China: Evidence from city-level data," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 78(C).
    12. Guo, Jianxin & Zhu, Kaiwei & Cheng, Yonglong, 2024. "Deployment of clean energy technologies towards carbon neutrality under resource constraints," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 295(C).
    13. Li, Mingquan & Virguez, Edgar & Shan, Rui & Tian, Jialin & Gao, Shuo & Patiño-Echeverri, Dalia, 2022. "High-resolution data shows China’s wind and solar energy resources are enough to support a 2050 decarbonized electricity system," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 306(PA).
    14. Sarkodie, Samuel Asumadu & Ahmed, Maruf Yakubu & Leirvik, Thomas, 2022. "Trade volume affects bitcoin energy consumption and carbon footprint," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 48(C).
    15. Jean C. Bikomeye & Caitlin S. Rublee & Kirsten M. M. Beyer, 2021. "Positive Externalities of Climate Change Mitigation and Adaptation for Human Health: A Review and Conceptual Framework for Public Health Research," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 18(5), pages 1-29, March.
    16. Heerma van Voss, Bas & Rafaty, Ryan, 2022. "Sensitive intervention points in China's coal phaseout," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 163(C).
    17. Guo, Xuepeng & Pang, Jun, 2023. "Analysis of provincial CO2 emission peaking in China: Insights from production and consumption," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 331(C).
    18. Wang, Zhen & Yan, Haoben & Gao, Xue & Liang, Qiaomei & Mi, Zhifu & Liu, Lancui, 2024. "Have consumption-based CO2 emissions in developed countries peaked?," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 184(C).
    19. Li, Chengzhe & Zhang, Libo & Wang, Qunwei & Zhou, Dequn, 2024. "Towards low-carbon steel: System dynamics simulation of policies impact on green hydrogen steelmaking in China and the European Union," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 188(C).
    20. Chai, Song & Liu, Qiyun & Yang, Jin, 2023. "Renewable power generation policies in China: Policy instrument choices and influencing factors from the central and local government perspectives," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 174(C).
    21. Wang, Yihan & Wen, Zongguo & Lv, Xiaojun & Zhu, Junming, 2023. "The regional discrepancies in the contribution of China’s thermal power plants toward the carbon peaking target," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 337(C).
    22. Ke Li & Lei Gao & Zhaoxia Guo & Yucheng Dong & Enayat A. Moallemi & Gang Kou & Meiqian Chen & Wenhao Lin & Qi Liu & Michael Obersteiner & Matteo Pedercini & Brett A. Bryan, 2024. "Safeguarding China’s long-term sustainability against systemic disruptors," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 15(1), pages 1-10, December.
    23. Lin, Huaxing & Zhou, Ziqian & Chen, Shun & Jiang, Ping, 2023. "Clustering and assessing carbon peak statuses of typical cities in underdeveloped Western China," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 329(C).
    24. Wu, Liangpeng & Zhu, Qingyuan, 2023. "Has the Emissions Trading Scheme (ETS) promoted the end-of-pipe emissions reduction? Evidence from China's residents," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 277(C).

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