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Greater gains for Australia by tackling all SDGs but the last steps will be the most challenging

Author

Listed:
  • Cameron Allen

    (School of Biological, Earth and Environmental Sciences, PANGEA Centre, UNSW Sydney)

  • Graciela Metternicht

    (School of Biological, Earth and Environmental Sciences, PANGEA Centre, UNSW Sydney)

  • Thomas Wiedmann

    (Sustainability Assessment Program, School of Civil and Environmental Engineering, UNSW Sydney
    ISA, School of Physics A28, The University of Sydney)

  • Matteo Pedercini

    (Millennium Institute)

Abstract

The Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) combine complex interlinkages, future uncertainty and transformational change. Recent studies highlight that trade-offs between SDG targets may undermine achievement of the goals. Significant gaps remain in scenario frameworks and modelling capabilities. We develop a novel approach nesting national SDG scenario modelling within the global Shared Socioeconomic Pathways, selecting Australia as a use case. The integrated SDG–Australia model is used to project four alternative scenarios that adopt different development approaches. Although we find that Australia is off-track to achieve the SDGs by 2030, considerable progress is possible by altering Australia’s development trajectory. A ‘Sustainability Transition’ scenario comprising a coherent set of policies and investments delivers rapid and balanced progress of 70% towards SDG targets by 2030, well ahead of the business-as-usual scenario (40%). A focus on economic growth, social inclusion or green economy in isolation foregoes opportunities for greater gains. However, future uncertainty and cascading risks could undermine progress, and closing the gap to 100% SDG achievement will be very challenging. This will require a shift from ‘transition’ to ‘transformation’.

Suggested Citation

  • Cameron Allen & Graciela Metternicht & Thomas Wiedmann & Matteo Pedercini, 2019. "Greater gains for Australia by tackling all SDGs but the last steps will be the most challenging," Nature Sustainability, Nature, vol. 2(11), pages 1041-1050, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:natsus:v:2:y:2019:i:11:d:10.1038_s41893-019-0409-9
    DOI: 10.1038/s41893-019-0409-9
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Broadbent, Gail & Allen, Cameron & Wiedmann, Thomas & Metternicht, Graciela, 2022. "The role of electric vehicles in decarbonising Australia’s road transport sector: modelling ambitious scenarios," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 168(C).
    2. Raquel Froese Buzogany & Birgit Kopainsky & Paulo Gonçalves, 2024. "Developing theoretically grounded causal maps to examine and improve policy narratives about global challenges," System Dynamics Review, System Dynamics Society, vol. 40(4), October.
    3. Cameron Allen & Annabel Biddulph & Thomas Wiedmann & Matteo Pedercini & Shirin Malekpour, 2024. "Modelling six sustainable development transformations in Australia and their accelerators, impediments, enablers, and interlinkages," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 15(1), pages 1-16, December.
    4. Cameron Allen & Shirin Malekpour & Michael Mintrom, 2023. "Cross‐scale, cross‐level and multi‐actor governance of transformations toward the Sustainable Development Goals: A review of common challenges and solutions," Sustainable Development, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 31(3), pages 1250-1267, June.
    5. He, Jianjian & Yang, Yi & Liao, Zhongju & Xu, Anqi & Fang, Kai, 2022. "Linking SDG 7 to assess the renewable energy footprint of nations by 2030," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 317(C).
    6. Broadbent, Gail Helen & Allen, Cameron Ian & Wiedmann, Thomas & Metternicht, Graciela Isabel, 2022. "Accelerating electric vehicle uptake: Modelling public policy options on prices and infrastructure," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 162(C), pages 155-174.
    7. S. Vögele & K. Govorukha & P. Mayer & I. Rhoden & D. Rübbelke & W. Kuckshinrichs, 2023. "Effects of a coal phase-out in Europe on reaching the UN Sustainable Development Goals," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 25(1), pages 879-916, January.
    8. Cameron Allen & Graciela Metternicht & Thomas Wiedmann, 2021. "Priorities for science to support national implementation of the sustainable development goals: A review of progress and gaps," Sustainable Development, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 29(4), pages 635-652, July.
    9. Meiqian Chen & Lei Gao & Zhaoxia Guo & Yucheng Dong & Enayat A. Moallemi & Yinfeng Xu & Ke Li & Wenhao Lin & Jing Yang & Weijun Xu & Matteo Pedercini & Brett A. Bryan, 2024. "A cost-effective climate mitigation pathway for China with co-benefits for sustainability," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 15(1), pages 1-12, December.
    10. Ke Li & Lei Gao & Zhaoxia Guo & Yucheng Dong & Enayat A. Moallemi & Gang Kou & Meiqian Chen & Wenhao Lin & Qi Liu & Michael Obersteiner & Matteo Pedercini & Brett A. Bryan, 2024. "Safeguarding China’s long-term sustainability against systemic disruptors," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 15(1), pages 1-10, December.

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