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After the pandemic: perspectives on the future trajectory of COVID-19

Author

Listed:
  • Amalio Telenti

    (Vir Biotechnology
    Scripps Research)

  • Ann Arvin

    (Vir Biotechnology)

  • Lawrence Corey

    (Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center)

  • Davide Corti

    (a subsidiary of Vir Biotechnology)

  • Michael S. Diamond

    (Washington University School of Medicine
    Washington University School of Medicine
    Washington University School of Medicine)

  • Adolfo García-Sastre

    (Icahn School of Medicine at Mount Sinai
    Division of Infectious Diseases, Icahn School of Medicine at Mount Sinai
    Icahn School of Medicine at Mount Sinai
    Icahn School of Medicine at Mount Sinai)

  • Robert F. Garry

    (Tulane University)

  • Edward C. Holmes

    (School of Life and Environmental Sciences and School of Medical Sciences, The University of Sydney)

  • Phillip S. Pang

    (Vir Biotechnology)

  • Herbert W. Virgin

    (Vir Biotechnology
    Washington University School of Medicine
    UT Southwestern Medical Center)

Abstract

There is a realistic expectation that the global effort in vaccination will bring the pandemic caused by severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) under control. Nonetheless, uncertainties remain about the type of long-term association that the virus will establish with the human population and, in particular, whether coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) will become an endemic disease. Although the trajectory is difficult to predict, the conditions, concepts and variables that influence this transition can be anticipated. Persistence of SARS-CoV-2 as an endemic virus, perhaps with seasonal epidemic peaks, may be fuelled by pockets of susceptible individuals and waning immunity after infection or vaccination, changes in the virus through antigenic drift that diminish protection and re-entries from zoonotic reservoirs. Here we review relevant observations from previous epidemics and discuss the potential evolution of SARS-CoV-2 as it adapts during persistent transmission in the presence of a level of population immunity. Lack of effective surveillance or adequate response could enable the emergence of new epidemic or pandemic patterns from an endemic infection of SARS-CoV-2. There are key pieces of data that are urgently needed in order to make good decisions; we outline these and propose a way forward.

Suggested Citation

  • Amalio Telenti & Ann Arvin & Lawrence Corey & Davide Corti & Michael S. Diamond & Adolfo García-Sastre & Robert F. Garry & Edward C. Holmes & Phillip S. Pang & Herbert W. Virgin, 2021. "After the pandemic: perspectives on the future trajectory of COVID-19," Nature, Nature, vol. 596(7873), pages 495-504, August.
  • Handle: RePEc:nat:nature:v:596:y:2021:i:7873:d:10.1038_s41586-021-03792-w
    DOI: 10.1038/s41586-021-03792-w
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Sheri Harari & Danielle Miller & Shay Fleishon & David Burstein & Adi Stern, 2024. "Using big sequencing data to identify chronic SARS-Coronavirus-2 infections," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 15(1), pages 1-12, December.
    2. Junya Sunagawa & Hyeongki Park & Kwang Su Kim & Ryo Komorizono & Sooyoun Choi & Lucia Ramirez Torres & Joohyeon Woo & Yong Dam Jeong & William S. Hart & Robin N. Thompson & Kazuyuki Aihara & Shingo Iw, 2023. "Isolation may select for earlier and higher peak viral load but shorter duration in SARS-CoV-2 evolution," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 14(1), pages 1-13, December.
    3. Asmik Nalmpatian & Christian Heumann & Stefan Pilz, 2024. "Forecasting Mortality Trends: Advanced Techniques and the Impact of COVID-19," Stats, MDPI, vol. 7(4), pages 1-17, October.
    4. Deka, Aniruddha & Bhattacharyya, Samit, 2022. "The effect of human vaccination behaviour on strain competition in an infectious disease: An imitation dynamic approach," Theoretical Population Biology, Elsevier, vol. 143(C), pages 62-76.
    5. David Hueting & Karen Schriever & Rui Sun & Stelios Vlachiotis & Fanglei Zuo & Likun Du & Helena Persson & Camilla Hofström & Mats Ohlin & Karin Walldén & Marcus Buggert & Lennart Hammarström & Harold, 2023. "Design, structure and plasma binding of ancestral β-CoV scaffold antigens," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 14(1), pages 1-14, December.
    6. Zhong, Wei & Broniatowski, David A., 2023. "Economic risk framing increases intention to vaccinate among Republican COVID-19 vaccine refusers," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 317(C).
    7. Małgorzata Kowalska & Ewa Niewiadomska, 2022. "Spatial Variability of COVID-19 Hospitalization in the Silesian Region, Poland," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(15), pages 1-11, July.
    8. John Steven Ott & Frances L. Edwards & Pitima Boonyarak, 2021. "Global Responses to the COVID-19 Pandemic," Public Organization Review, Springer, vol. 21(4), pages 619-627, December.
    9. Ke Li & Lei Gao & Zhaoxia Guo & Yucheng Dong & Enayat A. Moallemi & Gang Kou & Meiqian Chen & Wenhao Lin & Qi Liu & Michael Obersteiner & Matteo Pedercini & Brett A. Bryan, 2024. "Safeguarding China’s long-term sustainability against systemic disruptors," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 15(1), pages 1-10, December.
    10. Zhanding Cui & Jinlong Liu & Chong Xie & Tao Wang & Pu Sun & Jinlong Wang & Jiaoyang Li & Guoxiu Li & Jicheng Qiu & Ying Zhang & Dengliang Li & Ying Sun & Juanbin Yin & Kun Li & Zhixun Zhao & Hong Yua, 2024. "High-throughput screening unveils nitazoxanide as a potent PRRSV inhibitor by targeting NMRAL1," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 15(1), pages 1-12, December.

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