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Early systems change necessary for catalyzing long-term sustainability in a post-2030 agenda

Author

Listed:
  • Enayat A. Moallemi
  • Sibel Eker
  • Lei Gao
  • Michalis Hadjikakou
  • Qi Liu
  • Jan Kwakkel
  • Patrick M. Reed
  • Michael Obersteiner
  • Zhaoxia Guo
  • Brett A. Bryan

Abstract

Progress to-date towards the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) has fallen short of expectations and is unlikely to fully meet 2030 targets. Despite the little chance of imminent success, past assessments have mostly focused on short- and medium-term evaluations, limiting the ability to explore the longer-term effects of systemic interactions with time lags and delay. Here we undertake global systems modelling with a longer-term view than previous assessments to explore the drivers of sustainability progress and how they could emerge by 2030, 2050, and 2100 under different development pathways and towards quantitative targets. We find that early planning for systems change to shift from business-as-usual to more sustainable pathways is important for accelerating progress towards increasingly ambitious targets by 2030, 2050, and 2100. These findings indicate the importance of adopting longer-term timeframes and pathways to ensure that the necessary pre-conditions are in place for sustainability beyond the current 2030 Agenda.

Suggested Citation

  • Enayat A. Moallemi & Sibel Eker & Lei Gao & Michalis Hadjikakou & Qi Liu & Jan Kwakkel & Patrick M. Reed & Michael Obersteiner & Zhaoxia Guo & Brett A. Bryan, 2020. "Early systems change necessary for catalyzing long-term sustainability in a post-2030 agenda," Papers 2012.04333, arXiv.org, revised Aug 2022.
    • Handle: RePEc:arx:papers:2012.04333
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Sibel Eker & Charlie Wilson & Niklas Hohne & Mark S. McCaffrey & Irene Monasterolo & Leila Niamir & Caroline Zimm, 2023. "A dynamic systems approach to harness the potential of social tipping," Papers 2309.14964, arXiv.org.
    2. Huanbi Yue & Chunyang He & Qingxu Huang & Da Zhang & Peijun Shi & Enayat A. Moallemi & Fangjin Xu & Yang Yang & Xin Qi & Qun Ma & Brett A. Bryan, 2024. "Substantially reducing global PM2.5-related deaths under SDG3.9 requires better air pollution control and healthcare," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 15(1), pages 1-13, December.
    3. Ke Li & Lei Gao & Zhaoxia Guo & Yucheng Dong & Enayat A. Moallemi & Gang Kou & Meiqian Chen & Wenhao Lin & Qi Liu & Michael Obersteiner & Matteo Pedercini & Brett A. Bryan, 2024. "Safeguarding China’s long-term sustainability against systemic disruptors," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 15(1), pages 1-10, December.

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