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Decreased Indian Ocean Dipole variability under prolonged greenhouse warming

Author

Listed:
  • Soong-Ki Kim

    (Yonsei University)

  • Hyo-Jin Park

    (Yonsei University
    Yonsei University)

  • Soon-Il An

    (Yonsei University
    Yonsei University
    Pohang University of Science and Technology (POSTECH))

  • Chao Liu

    (Yonsei University)

  • Wenju Cai

    (Ocean University of China
    Laoshan Laboratory
    Xiamen University
    Chinese Academy of Sciences)

  • Agus Santoso

    (CSIRO
    The University of New South Wales
    Ocean University of China)

  • Jong-Seong Kug

    (Seoul National University)

Abstract

The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is a major climate variability mode that substantially influences weather extremes and climate patterns worldwide. However, the response of IOD variability to anthropogenic global warming remains highly uncertain. The latest IPCC Sixth Assessment Report concluded that human influences on IOD variability are not robustly detected in observations and twenty-first century climate-model projections. Here, using millennial-length climate simulations, we disentangle forced response and internal variability in IOD change and show that greenhouse warming robustly suppresses IOD variability. On a century time scale, internal variability overwhelms the forced change in IOD, leading to a widespread response in IOD variability. This masking effect is mainly caused by a remote influence of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation. However, on a millennial time scale, nearly all climate models show a long-term weakening trend in IOD variability by greenhouse warming. Our results provide compelling evidence for a human influence on the IOD.

Suggested Citation

  • Soong-Ki Kim & Hyo-Jin Park & Soon-Il An & Chao Liu & Wenju Cai & Agus Santoso & Jong-Seong Kug, 2024. "Decreased Indian Ocean Dipole variability under prolonged greenhouse warming," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 15(1), pages 1-9, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcom:v:15:y:2024:i:1:d:10.1038_s41467-024-47276-7
    DOI: 10.1038/s41467-024-47276-7
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. N. H. Saji & B. N. Goswami & P. N. Vinayachandran & T. Yamagata, 1999. "A dipole mode in the tropical Indian Ocean," Nature, Nature, vol. 401(6751), pages 360-363, September.
    2. Christopher W. Callahan & Chen Chen & Maria Rugenstein & Jonah Bloch-Johnson & Shuting Yang & Elisabeth J. Moyer, 2021. "Robust decrease in El Niño/Southern Oscillation amplitude under long-term warming," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 11(9), pages 752-757, September.
    3. Wenju Cai & Kai Yang & Lixin Wu & Gang Huang & Agus Santoso & Benjamin Ng & Guojian Wang & Toshio Yamagata, 2021. "Opposite response of strong and moderate positive Indian Ocean Dipole to global warming," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 11(1), pages 27-32, January.
    4. Wenju Cai & Agus Santoso & Guojian Wang & Evan Weller & Lixin Wu & Karumuri Ashok & Yukio Masumoto & Toshio Yamagata, 2014. "Increased frequency of extreme Indian Ocean Dipole events due to greenhouse warming," Nature, Nature, vol. 510(7504), pages 254-258, June.
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