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A very likely weakening of Pacific Walker Circulation in constrained near-future projections

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  • Mingna Wu

    (Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences
    University of Chinese Academy of Sciences)

  • Tianjun Zhou

    (Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences
    University of Chinese Academy of Sciences
    Chinese Academy of Sciences (CAS))

  • Chao Li

    (Max Planck Institute for Meteorology)

  • Hongmei Li

    (Max Planck Institute for Meteorology)

  • Xiaolong Chen

    (Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences
    Chinese Academy of Sciences (CAS))

  • Bo Wu

    (Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences
    Chinese Academy of Sciences (CAS))

  • Wenxia Zhang

    (Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences)

  • Lixia Zhang

    (Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences
    Chinese Academy of Sciences (CAS))

Abstract

The observational records have shown a strengthening of the Pacific Walker circulation (PWC) since 1979. However, whether the observed change is forced by external forcing or internal variability remains inconclusive, a solid answer to more societal relevantly question of how the PWC will change in the near future is still a challenge. Here we perform a quantitative estimation on the contributions of external forcing and internal variability to the recent observed PWC strengthening using large ensemble simulations from six state-of-the-art Earth system models. We find the phase transition of the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO), which is an internal variability mode related to the Pacific, accounts for approximately 63% (~51–72%) of the observed PWC strengthening. Models with sufficient ensemble members can reasonably capture the observed PWC and IPO changes. We further constrain the projection of PWC change by using climate models’ credit in reproducing the historical phase of IPO. The result shows a high probability of a weakened PWC in the near future.

Suggested Citation

  • Mingna Wu & Tianjun Zhou & Chao Li & Hongmei Li & Xiaolong Chen & Bo Wu & Wenxia Zhang & Lixia Zhang, 2021. "A very likely weakening of Pacific Walker Circulation in constrained near-future projections," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 12(1), pages 1-8, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcom:v:12:y:2021:i:1:d:10.1038_s41467-021-26693-y
    DOI: 10.1038/s41467-021-26693-y
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Mingna Wu & Chao Li & Matthew Collins & Hongmei Li & Xiaolong Chen & Tianjun Zhou & Zhongshi Zhang, 2024. "Early emergence and determinants of human-induced Walker circulation weakening," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 15(1), pages 1-11, December.

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