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Robust decrease in El Niño/Southern Oscillation amplitude under long-term warming

Author

Listed:
  • Christopher W. Callahan

    (Dartmouth College
    Northwestern University)

  • Chen Chen

    (Centre for Climate Research
    University of Chicago)

  • Maria Rugenstein

    (Colorado State University
    Max Planck Institute for Meteorology)

  • Jonah Bloch-Johnson

    (University of Chicago
    University of Reading)

  • Shuting Yang

    (Danish Meteorological Institute)

  • Elisabeth J. Moyer

    (University of Chicago)

Abstract

El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the primary mode of interannual climate variability, and understanding its response to climate change is critical, but research remains divided on the direction and magnitude of that response. Some twenty-first-century simulations suggest that increased CO2 strengthens ENSO, but studies suggest that on palaeoclimate timescales higher temperatures are associated with a reduced ENSO amplitude and a weaker Pacific zonal temperature gradient, sometimes termed a ‘permanent El Niño’. Internal variability complicates this debate by masking the response of ENSO to forcing in centennial-length projections. Here we exploit millennial-length climate model simulations to disentangle forced changes to ENSO under transient and equilibrated conditions. On transient timescales, models show a wide spread in ENSO responses but, on millennial timescales, nearly all of them show decreased ENSO amplitude and a weakened Pacific zonal temperature gradient. Our results reconcile differences among twenty-first-century simulations and suggest that CO2 forcing dampens ENSO over the long term.

Suggested Citation

  • Christopher W. Callahan & Chen Chen & Maria Rugenstein & Jonah Bloch-Johnson & Shuting Yang & Elisabeth J. Moyer, 2021. "Robust decrease in El Niño/Southern Oscillation amplitude under long-term warming," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 11(9), pages 752-757, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcli:v:11:y:2021:i:9:d:10.1038_s41558-021-01099-2
    DOI: 10.1038/s41558-021-01099-2
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    Cited by:

    1. Soong-Ki Kim & Hyo-Jin Park & Soon-Il An & Chao Liu & Wenju Cai & Agus Santoso & Jong-Seong Kug, 2024. "Decreased Indian Ocean Dipole variability under prolonged greenhouse warming," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 15(1), pages 1-9, December.
    2. Damette, Olivier & Mathonnat, Clément & Thavard, Julien, 2024. "Climate and sovereign risk: The Latin American experience with strong ENSO events," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 178(C).
    3. Omid Alizadeh, 2022. "Amplitude, duration, variability, and seasonal frequency analysis of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 174(3), pages 1-15, October.
    4. Ruyu Gan & Qi Liu & Gang Huang & Kaiming Hu & Xichen Li, 2023. "Greenhouse warming and internal variability increase extreme and central Pacific El Niño frequency since 1980," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 14(1), pages 1-11, December.

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