IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/gam/jijerp/v18y2021i19p10201-d645206.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Climate Precursors of Satellite Water Marker Index for Spring Cholera Outbreak in Northern Bay of Bengal Coastal Regions

Author

Listed:
  • Tomomichi Ogata

    (Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology, Yokohama 237-0061, Kanagawa, Japan)

  • Marie-Fanny Racault

    (Plymouth Marine Laboratory (PML), Prospect Place, The Hoe, Plymouth PL1 3DH, UK
    National Centre for Earth Observation (NCEO), Prospect Place, The Hoe, PML, Plymouth PL1 3DH, UK)

  • Masami Nonaka

    (Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology, Yokohama 237-0061, Kanagawa, Japan)

  • Swadhin Behera

    (Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology, Yokohama 237-0061, Kanagawa, Japan)

Abstract

Cholera is a water-borne infectious disease that affects 1.3 to 4 million people, with 21,000 to 143,000 reported fatalities each year worldwide. Outbreaks are devastating to affected communities and their prospects for development. The key to support preparedness and public health response is the ability to forecast cholera outbreaks with sufficient lead time. How Vibrio cholerae survives in the environment outside a human host is an important route of disease transmission. Thus, identifying the environmental and climate drivers of these pathogens is highly desirable. Here, we elucidate for the first time a mechanistic link between climate variability and cholera (Satellite Water Marker; SWM) index in the Bengal Delta, which allows us to predict cholera outbreaks up to two seasons earlier. High values of the SWM index in fall were associated with above-normal summer monsoon rainfalls over northern India. In turn, these correlated with the La Niña climate pattern that was traced back to the summer monsoon and previous spring seasons. We present a new multi-linear regression model that can explain 50% of the SWM variability over the Bengal Delta based on the relationship with climatic indices of the El Niño Southern Oscillation, Indian Ocean Dipole, and summer monsoon rainfall during the decades 1997–2016. Interestingly, we further found that these relationships were non-stationary over the multi-decadal period 1948–2018. These results bear novel implications for developing outbreak-risk forecasts, demonstrating a crucial need to account for multi-decadal variations in climate interactions and underscoring to better understand how the south Asian summer monsoon responds to climate variability.

Suggested Citation

  • Tomomichi Ogata & Marie-Fanny Racault & Masami Nonaka & Swadhin Behera, 2021. "Climate Precursors of Satellite Water Marker Index for Spring Cholera Outbreak in Northern Bay of Bengal Coastal Regions," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 18(19), pages 1-15, September.
  • Handle: RePEc:gam:jijerp:v:18:y:2021:i:19:p:10201-:d:645206
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/1660-4601/18/19/10201/pdf
    Download Restriction: no

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/1660-4601/18/19/10201/
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Amy Marie Campbell & Marie-Fanny Racault & Stephen Goult & Angus Laurenson, 2020. "Cholera Risk: A Machine Learning Approach Applied to Essential Climate Variables," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 17(24), pages 1-24, December.
    2. N. H. Saji & B. N. Goswami & P. N. Vinayachandran & T. Yamagata, 1999. "A dipole mode in the tropical Indian Ocean," Nature, Nature, vol. 401(6751), pages 360-363, September.
    3. Ankur Mutreja & Dong Wook Kim & Nicholas R. Thomson & Thomas R. Connor & Je Hee Lee & Samuel Kariuki & Nicholas J. Croucher & Seon Young Choi & Simon R. Harris & Michael Lebens & Swapan Kumar Niyogi &, 2011. "Evidence for several waves of global transmission in the seventh cholera pandemic," Nature, Nature, vol. 477(7365), pages 462-465, September.
    4. Wenju Cai & Kai Yang & Lixin Wu & Gang Huang & Agus Santoso & Benjamin Ng & Guojian Wang & Toshio Yamagata, 2021. "Opposite response of strong and moderate positive Indian Ocean Dipole to global warming," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 11(1), pages 27-32, January.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Wenju Cai & Yi Liu & Xiaopei Lin & Ziguang Li & Ying Zhang & David Newth, 2024. "Nonlinear country-heterogenous impact of the Indian Ocean Dipole on global economies," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 15(1), pages 1-10, December.
    2. Amy Marie Campbell & Ronnie G. Gavilan & Michel Abanto Marin & Chao Yang & Chris Hauton & Ronny Aerle & Jaime Martinez-Urtaza, 2024. "Evolutionary dynamics of the successful expansion of pandemic Vibrio parahaemolyticus ST3 in Latin America," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 15(1), pages 1-15, December.
    3. Soong-Ki Kim & Hyo-Jin Park & Soon-Il An & Chao Liu & Wenju Cai & Agus Santoso & Jong-Seong Kug, 2024. "Decreased Indian Ocean Dipole variability under prolonged greenhouse warming," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 15(1), pages 1-9, December.
    4. Li Zhang & Xuya Ren & Wenju Cai & Xichen Li & Lixin Wu, 2024. "Weakened western Indian Ocean dominance on Antarctic sea ice variability in a changing climate," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 15(1), pages 1-10, December.
    5. Guojian Wang & Wenju Cai & Agus Santoso, 2024. "Variability of the Indian Ocean Dipole post-2100 reverses to a reduction despite persistent global warming," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 15(1), pages 1-6, December.
    6. Weiqing Han & Lei Zhang & Gerald A. Meehl & Shoichiro Kido & Tomoki Tozuka & Yuanlong Li & Michael J. McPhaden & Aixue Hu & Anny Cazenave & Nan Rosenbloom & Gary Strand & B. Jason West & Wen Xing, 2022. "Sea level extremes and compounding marine heatwaves in coastal Indonesia," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 13(1), pages 1-12, December.
    7. Dongyan Liu & Chongran Zhou & John K. Keesing & Oscar Serrano & Axel Werner & Yin Fang & Yingjun Chen & Pere Masque & Janine Kinloch & Aleksey Sadekov & Yan Du, 2022. "Wildfires enhance phytoplankton production in tropical oceans," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 13(1), pages 1-9, December.
    8. Sadie J. Ryan & Anna M. Stewart-Ibarra & Eunice Ordóñez-Enireb & Winnie Chu & Julia L. Finkelstein & Christine A. King & Luis E. Escobar & Christina Lupone & Froilan Heras & Erica Tauzer & Egan Waggon, 2018. "Spatiotemporal Variation in Environmental Vibrio cholerae in an Estuary in Southern Coastal Ecuador," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 15(3), pages 1-13, March.
    9. Nisa Anil & M. R. Ramesh Kumar & R. Sajeev & P. K. Saji, 2016. "Role of distinct flavours of IOD events on Indian summer monsoon," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 82(2), pages 1317-1326, June.
    10. Akio Kitoh, 2007. "Variability of Indian monsoon-ENSO relationship in a 1000-year MRI-CGCM2.2 simulation," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 42(2), pages 261-272, August.
    11. Iskhaq Iskandar & Deni Okta Lestari & Agus Dwi Saputra & Riza Yuliratno Setiawan & Anindya Wirasatriya & Raden Dwi Susanto & Wijaya Mardiansyah & Muhammad Irfan & Rozirwan & Joga Dharma Setiawan & Kun, 2022. "Extreme Positive Indian Ocean Dipole in 2019 and Its Impact on Indonesia," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(22), pages 1-15, November.
    12. Anni Arumsari Fitriany & Piotr J. Flatau & Khoirunurrofik Khoirunurrofik & Nelly Florida Riama, 2021. "Assessment on the Use of Meteorological and Social Media Information for Forest Fire Detection and Prediction in Riau, Indonesia," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(20), pages 1-13, October.
    13. R. S. Akhila & J. Kuttippurath & R. Rahul & A. Chakraborty, 2022. "Genesis and simultaneous occurrences of the super cyclone Kyarr and extremely severe cyclone Maha in the Arabian Sea in October 2019," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 113(2), pages 1133-1150, September.
    14. Yadav Prasad Joshi & Eun-Hye Kim & Jong-Hun Kim & Ho Kim & Hae-Kwan Cheong, 2016. "Associations between Meteorological Factors and Aseptic Meningitis in Six Metropolitan Provinces of the Republic of Korea," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 13(12), pages 1-12, November.
    15. D. Chiru Naik & Sagar Rohidas Chavan & P. Sonali, 2023. "Incorporating the climate oscillations in the computation of meteorological drought over India," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 117(3), pages 2617-2646, July.
    16. Liu, Jin & Li, Rui & Li, Shuo & Meucci, Alberto & Young, Ian R., 2024. "Increasing wave power due to global climate change and intensification of Antarctic Oscillation," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 358(C).
    17. Kavya Johny & Maya L. Pai & S. Adarsh, 2022. "Investigating the multiscale teleconnections of Madden–Julian oscillation and monthly rainfall using time-dependent intrinsic cross-correlation," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 112(2), pages 1795-1822, June.
    18. Luis A. Gil-Alana, 2015. "Linear and segmented trends in sea surface temperature data," Journal of Applied Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 42(7), pages 1531-1546, July.
    19. David P. Rowell & Catherine A. Senior & Michael Vellinga & Richard J. Graham, 2016. "Can climate projection uncertainty be constrained over Africa using metrics of contemporary performance?," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 134(4), pages 621-633, February.
    20. K. Sumesh & M. Ramesh Kumar, 2013. "Tropical cyclones over north Indian Ocean during El-Niño Modoki years," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 68(2), pages 1057-1074, September.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:gam:jijerp:v:18:y:2021:i:19:p:10201-:d:645206. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: MDPI Indexing Manager (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.mdpi.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.