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Opposite response of strong and moderate positive Indian Ocean Dipole to global warming

Author

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  • Wenju Cai

    (Ocean University of China and Qingdao National Laboratory for Marine Science and Technology
    Center for Southern Hemisphere Oceans Research (CSHOR), CSIRO Oceans and Atmosphere)

  • Kai Yang

    (Chinese Academy of Sciences)

  • Lixin Wu

    (Ocean University of China and Qingdao National Laboratory for Marine Science and Technology)

  • Gang Huang

    (Chinese Academy of Sciences
    Qingdao National Laboratory for Marine Science and Technology)

  • Agus Santoso

    (Center for Southern Hemisphere Oceans Research (CSHOR), CSIRO Oceans and Atmosphere
    The University of New South Wales)

  • Benjamin Ng

    (Center for Southern Hemisphere Oceans Research (CSHOR), CSIRO Oceans and Atmosphere)

  • Guojian Wang

    (Ocean University of China and Qingdao National Laboratory for Marine Science and Technology
    Center for Southern Hemisphere Oceans Research (CSHOR), CSIRO Oceans and Atmosphere)

  • Toshio Yamagata

    (Application Laboratory, JAMSTEC)

Abstract

A strong positive Indian Ocean Dipole (pIOD) induces weather extremes such as the 2019 Australian bushfires and African floods. The impact is influenced by sea surface temperature (SST), yet models disagree on how pIOD SST may respond to greenhouse warming. Here we find increased SST variability of strong pIOD events, with strong equatorial eastern Indian Ocean cool anomalies, but decreased variability of moderate pIOD events, dominated by western warm anomalies. This opposite response is detected in the Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project (CMIP5 and CMIP6) climate models that simulate the two pIOD regimes. Under greenhouse warming, the lower troposphere warms faster than the surface, limiting Ekman pumping that drives the moderate pIOD warm anomalies; however, faster surface warming in the equatorial western region favours atmospheric convection in the west, strengthening equatorial nonlinear advection that forces the strong pIOD cool anomalies. Climate extremes seen in 2019 are therefore likely to occur more frequently under greenhouse warming.

Suggested Citation

  • Wenju Cai & Kai Yang & Lixin Wu & Gang Huang & Agus Santoso & Benjamin Ng & Guojian Wang & Toshio Yamagata, 2021. "Opposite response of strong and moderate positive Indian Ocean Dipole to global warming," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 11(1), pages 27-32, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcli:v:11:y:2021:i:1:d:10.1038_s41558-020-00943-1
    DOI: 10.1038/s41558-020-00943-1
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    Cited by:

    1. Wenju Cai & Yi Liu & Xiaopei Lin & Ziguang Li & Ying Zhang & David Newth, 2024. "Nonlinear country-heterogenous impact of the Indian Ocean Dipole on global economies," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 15(1), pages 1-10, December.
    2. Dongyan Liu & Chongran Zhou & John K. Keesing & Oscar Serrano & Axel Werner & Yin Fang & Yingjun Chen & Pere Masque & Janine Kinloch & Aleksey Sadekov & Yan Du, 2022. "Wildfires enhance phytoplankton production in tropical oceans," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 13(1), pages 1-9, December.
    3. Tomomichi Ogata & Marie-Fanny Racault & Masami Nonaka & Swadhin Behera, 2021. "Climate Precursors of Satellite Water Marker Index for Spring Cholera Outbreak in Northern Bay of Bengal Coastal Regions," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 18(19), pages 1-15, September.
    4. Soong-Ki Kim & Hyo-Jin Park & Soon-Il An & Chao Liu & Wenju Cai & Agus Santoso & Jong-Seong Kug, 2024. "Decreased Indian Ocean Dipole variability under prolonged greenhouse warming," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 15(1), pages 1-9, December.
    5. Sahil Sharma & Kyung-Ja Ha & Ryohei Yamaguchi & Keith B. Rodgers & Axel Timmermann & Eui-Seok Chung, 2023. "Future Indian Ocean warming patterns," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 14(1), pages 1-11, December.
    6. Li Zhang & Xuya Ren & Wenju Cai & Xichen Li & Lixin Wu, 2024. "Weakened western Indian Ocean dominance on Antarctic sea ice variability in a changing climate," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 15(1), pages 1-10, December.
    7. Guojian Wang & Wenju Cai & Agus Santoso, 2024. "Variability of the Indian Ocean Dipole post-2100 reverses to a reduction despite persistent global warming," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 15(1), pages 1-6, December.

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