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Increased frequency of extreme Indian Ocean Dipole events due to greenhouse warming

Author

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  • Wenju Cai

    (CSIRO Marine and Atmospheric Research, Aspendale, Victoria, 3195 Australia
    Physical Oceanography Laboratory, Qingdao Collaborative Innovation Center of Marine Science and Technology, Ocean University of China)

  • Agus Santoso

    (Climate Change Research Centre and ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate System Science, The University of New South Wales, Sydney, 2052 Australia)

  • Guojian Wang

    (CSIRO Marine and Atmospheric Research, Aspendale, Victoria, 3195 Australia
    Physical Oceanography Laboratory, Qingdao Collaborative Innovation Center of Marine Science and Technology, Ocean University of China)

  • Evan Weller

    (CSIRO Marine and Atmospheric Research, Aspendale, Victoria, 3195 Australia)

  • Lixin Wu

    (Physical Oceanography Laboratory, Qingdao Collaborative Innovation Center of Marine Science and Technology, Ocean University of China)

  • Karumuri Ashok

    (Centre for Climate Change Research, Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology Pashan, Pune 411 008, India)

  • Yukio Masumoto

    (Graduate School of Science, The University of Tokyo, 7-3-1 Hongo, Bunkyo-ku, Tokyo 113-0033, Japan
    Climate Variation Predictability and Applicatability Research Program, Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology (JAMSTEC), 3173-25 Showa-machi, Kanazawa-ku, Yokohama 236-0001, Japan)

  • Toshio Yamagata

    (Application Laboratory, JAMSTEC, 3173-25 Showa-machi, Kanazawa-ku, Yokohama 236-0001, Japan)

Abstract

Extreme positive-Indian-Ocean-dipole events cause devastating floods in eastern tropical Africa and severe droughts in Asia; increasing greenhouse gas emissions will make these dipole events about three times more frequent in the twenty-first century.

Suggested Citation

  • Wenju Cai & Agus Santoso & Guojian Wang & Evan Weller & Lixin Wu & Karumuri Ashok & Yukio Masumoto & Toshio Yamagata, 2014. "Increased frequency of extreme Indian Ocean Dipole events due to greenhouse warming," Nature, Nature, vol. 510(7504), pages 254-258, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:nature:v:510:y:2014:i:7504:d:10.1038_nature13327
    DOI: 10.1038/nature13327
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    Cited by:

    1. Clara Diaz & Nicola L. Foster & Martin J. Attrill & Adam Bolton & Peter Ganderton & Kerry L. Howell & Edward Robinson & Phil Hosegood, 2023. "Mesophotic coral bleaching associated with changes in thermocline depth," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 14(1), pages 1-11, December.
    2. Wenju Cai & Yi Liu & Xiaopei Lin & Ziguang Li & Ying Zhang & David Newth, 2024. "Nonlinear country-heterogenous impact of the Indian Ocean Dipole on global economies," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 15(1), pages 1-10, December.
    3. Davis, Katrina J, 2022. "Managed culls mean extinction for a marine mammal population when combined with extreme climate impacts," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 473(C).
    4. Weiqing Han & Lei Zhang & Gerald A. Meehl & Shoichiro Kido & Tomoki Tozuka & Yuanlong Li & Michael J. McPhaden & Aixue Hu & Anny Cazenave & Nan Rosenbloom & Gary Strand & B. Jason West & Wen Xing, 2022. "Sea level extremes and compounding marine heatwaves in coastal Indonesia," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 13(1), pages 1-12, December.
    5. Tao Geng & Wenju Cai & Lixin Wu & Agus Santoso & Guojian Wang & Zhao Jing & Bolan Gan & Yun Yang & Shujun Li & Shengpeng Wang & Zhaohui Chen & Michael J. McPhaden, 2022. "Emergence of changing Central-Pacific and Eastern-Pacific El Niño-Southern Oscillation in a warming climate," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 13(1), pages 1-11, December.
    6. Jeong-Bae Kim & Jean de Dieu Habimana & Seon-Ho Kim & Deg-Hyo Bae, 2021. "Assessment of Climate Change Impacts on the Hydroclimatic Response in Burundi Based on CMIP6 ESMs," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(21), pages 1-21, October.
    7. Soong-Ki Kim & Hyo-Jin Park & Soon-Il An & Chao Liu & Wenju Cai & Agus Santoso & Jong-Seong Kug, 2024. "Decreased Indian Ocean Dipole variability under prolonged greenhouse warming," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 15(1), pages 1-9, December.
    8. Damette, Olivier & Mathonnat, Clément & Thavard, Julien, 2024. "Climate and sovereign risk: The Latin American experience with strong ENSO events," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 178(C).
    9. Joshua B. Horton & Penehuro Lefale & David Keith, 2021. "Parametric Insurance for Solar Geoengineering: Insights from the Pacific Catastrophe Risk Assessment and Financing Initiative," Global Policy, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 12(S1), pages 97-107, April.
    10. Omid Alizadeh, 2022. "Amplitude, duration, variability, and seasonal frequency analysis of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 174(3), pages 1-15, October.
    11. Hosmay Lopez & Sang-Ki Lee & Dongmin Kim & Andrew T. Wittenberg & Sang-Wook Yeh, 2022. "Projections of faster onset and slower decay of El Niño in the 21st century," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 13(1), pages 1-13, December.
    12. Sahil Sharma & Kyung-Ja Ha & Ryohei Yamaguchi & Keith B. Rodgers & Axel Timmermann & Eui-Seok Chung, 2023. "Future Indian Ocean warming patterns," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 14(1), pages 1-11, December.
    13. Wittwer, Glyn & Waschik, Robert, 2021. "Estimating the economic impacts of the 2017–2019 drought and 2019–2020 bushfires on regional NSW and the rest of Australia," Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 65(04), January.
    14. Michele Ronco & José María Tárraga & Jordi Muñoz & María Piles & Eva Sevillano Marco & Qiang Wang & Maria Teresa Miranda Espinosa & Sylvain Ponserre & Gustau Camps-Valls, 2023. "Exploring interactions between socioeconomic context and natural hazards on human population displacement," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 14(1), pages 1-11, December.
    15. Guojian Wang & Wenju Cai & Agus Santoso, 2024. "Variability of the Indian Ocean Dipole post-2100 reverses to a reduction despite persistent global warming," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 15(1), pages 1-6, December.
    16. Zi Yin & Qing Dong & Kunsheng Xiang & Min Bian, 2022. "Spatio-Temporal Characteristics of the Indo-Pacific Warm Pool and the Corresponding Rain Pool," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(17), pages 1-20, August.
    17. Aguilar, Arturo & Vicarelli, Marta, 2022. "El Niño and children: Medium-term effects of early-life weather shocks on cognitive and health outcomes," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 150(C).

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