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Projecting heat-related excess mortality under climate change scenarios in China

Author

Listed:
  • Jun Yang

    (Jinan University
    Guangdong-Hongkong-Macau Joint Laboratory of Collaborative Innovation for Environmental Quality
    Jinan University)

  • Maigeng Zhou

    (National Center for Chronic and Noncommunicable Disease Control and Prevention)

  • Zhoupeng Ren

    (Chinese Academy of Sciences)

  • Mengmeng Li

    (Sun Yat-Sen University Cancer Center)

  • Boguang Wang

    (Jinan University
    Guangdong-Hongkong-Macau Joint Laboratory of Collaborative Innovation for Environmental Quality
    Jinan University)

  • De Li Liu

    (Wagga Wagga Agricultural Institute
    University of New South Wales)

  • Chun-Quan Ou

    (Southern Medical University)

  • Peng Yin

    (National Center for Chronic and Noncommunicable Disease Control and Prevention)

  • Jimin Sun

    (Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention)

  • Shilu Tong

    (Shanghai Jiao Tong University
    Anhui Medical University
    Queensland University of Technology)

  • Hao Wang

    (Jinan University
    Guangdong-Hongkong-Macau Joint Laboratory of Collaborative Innovation for Environmental Quality
    Jinan University)

  • Chunlin Zhang

    (Jinan University
    Guangdong-Hongkong-Macau Joint Laboratory of Collaborative Innovation for Environmental Quality
    Jinan University)

  • Jinfeng Wang

    (Chinese Academy of Sciences)

  • Yuming Guo

    (Monash University)

  • Qiyong Liu

    (Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention)

Abstract

Recent studies have reported a variety of health consequences of climate change. However, the vulnerability of individuals and cities to climate change remains to be evaluated. We project the excess cause-, age-, region-, and education-specific mortality attributable to future high temperatures in 161 Chinese districts/counties using 28 global climate models (GCMs) under two representative concentration pathways (RCPs). To assess the influence of population ageing on the projection of future heat-related mortality, we further project the age-specific effect estimates under five shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs). Heat-related excess mortality is projected to increase from 1.9% (95% eCI: 0.2–3.3%) in the 2010s to 2.4% (0.4–4.1%) in the 2030 s and 5.5% (0.5–9.9%) in the 2090 s under RCP8.5, with corresponding relative changes of 0.5% (0.0–1.2%) and 3.6% (−0.5–7.5%). The projected slopes are steeper in southern, eastern, central and northern China. People with cardiorespiratory diseases, females, the elderly and those with low educational attainment could be more affected. Population ageing amplifies future heat-related excess deaths 2.3- to 5.8-fold under different SSPs, particularly for the northeast region. Our findings can help guide public health responses to ameliorate the risk of climate change.

Suggested Citation

  • Jun Yang & Maigeng Zhou & Zhoupeng Ren & Mengmeng Li & Boguang Wang & De Li Liu & Chun-Quan Ou & Peng Yin & Jimin Sun & Shilu Tong & Hao Wang & Chunlin Zhang & Jinfeng Wang & Yuming Guo & Qiyong Liu, 2021. "Projecting heat-related excess mortality under climate change scenarios in China," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 12(1), pages 1-11, December.
  • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcom:v:12:y:2021:i:1:d:10.1038_s41467-021-21305-1
    DOI: 10.1038/s41467-021-21305-1
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    Cited by:

    1. Jianxiong Hu & Guanhao He & Ruilin Meng & Weiwei Gong & Zhoupeng Ren & Heng Shi & Ziqiang Lin & Tao Liu & Fangfang Zeng & Peng Yin & Guoxia Bai & Mingfang Qin & Zhulin Hou & Xiaomei Dong & Chunliang Z, 2023. "Temperature-related mortality in China from specific injury," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 14(1), pages 1-10, December.
    2. Shapira, Stav & Teschner, Naama, 2023. "No heat, no eat: (Dis)entangling insecurities and their implications for health and well-being," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 336(C).
    3. Miguel Ángel Navas-Martín & José Antonio López-Bueno & María Soledad Ascaso-Sánchez & Fernando Follos & José Manuel Vellón & Isidro Juan Mirón & María Yolanda Luna & Gerardo Sánchez-Martínez & Cristin, 2023. "Heat Adaptation among the Elderly in Spain (1983–2018)," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 20(2), pages 1-10, January.
    4. Giacomo Falchetta & Enrica Cian & Ian Sue Wing & Deborah Carr, 2024. "Global projections of heat exposure of older adults," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 15(1), pages 1-13, December.
    5. Peng Yin & Ya Gao & Renjie Chen & Wei Liu & Cheng He & Junwei Hao & Maigeng Zhou & Haidong Kan, 2023. "Temperature-related death burden of various neurodegenerative diseases under climate warming: a nationwide modelling study," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 14(1), pages 1-11, December.
    6. Jin, Zhida & Li, Zheng & Yang, Mian, 2022. "Producer services development and manufacturing carbon intensity: Evidence from an international perspective," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 170(C).

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