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Robust changes in global subtropical circulation under greenhouse warming

Author

Listed:
  • Shijie Zhou

    (Chinese Academy of Sciences)

  • Ping Huang

    (Chinese Academy of Sciences
    Chinese Academy of Sciences)

  • Lin Wang

    (Chinese Academy of Sciences
    Chinese Academy of Sciences)

  • Kaiming Hu

    (Chinese Academy of Sciences
    Chinese Academy of Sciences)

  • Gang Huang

    (Chinese Academy of Sciences
    Qingdao National Laboratory for Marine Science and Technology)

  • Peng Hu

    (Yunnan University)

Abstract

The lower tropospheric subtropical circulation (SC) is characterized by monsoons and subtropical highs, playing an important role in global teleconnections and climate variability. The SC changes in a warmer climate are influenced by complex and region-specific mechanisms, resulting in uneven projections worldwide. Here, we present a method to quantify the overall intensity change in global SC, revealing a robust weakening across CMIP6 models. The weakening is primarily caused by global-mean surface warming, and partly counteracted by the direct CO2 effect. The direct CO2 effect is apparent in the transient response but is eventually dominated by the surface warming effect in a slow response. The distinct response timescales to global-mean warming and direct CO2 radiative forcing can well explain the time-varying SC changes in other CO2 emission scenarios. The declined SC implies a contracted monsoon range and drying at its boundary with arid regions under CO2-induced global warming.

Suggested Citation

  • Shijie Zhou & Ping Huang & Lin Wang & Kaiming Hu & Gang Huang & Peng Hu, 2024. "Robust changes in global subtropical circulation under greenhouse warming," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 15(1), pages 1-9, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcom:v:15:y:2024:i:1:d:10.1038_s41467-023-44244-5
    DOI: 10.1038/s41467-023-44244-5
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