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Future changes of global Annual and Seasonal Wind-Energy Production in CMIP6 projections considering air density variation

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  • Esnaola, Ganix
  • Ulazia, Alain
  • Sáenz, Jon
  • Ibarra-Berastegi, Gabriel

Abstract

This study investigates the effects of climate change on future global wind-energy production, one of the main pillars of decarbonization strategies, including two generally disregarded aspects: sub-daily variability and variable air density. Estimation of wind-energy production by turbines remains almost unexplored for the last generation of climate scenarios, that is, Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs), as previous evaluations have mostly focused on Wind Power Density (WPD). A complete view of future changes in wind-energy resources was presented, including wind, air density, WPD and Annual/Seasonal Energy Production (AEP/SEP) statistically significant changes for four different SSPs and large Multi-model Ensembles. Air density decreases 1%–4% in all SSPs, over all seasons and almost everywhere modulating wind changes negatively. Changes in AEP/SEP and WPD were comparable, with wider areas affected and stronger changes expected for the former. In the most optimistic SSP they range from 5% to 25%, and from 5% to 45% or higher in the most pessimistic. In most locations, and specially over the oceans, energy production is expected to decrease or remain unaltered; however, areas of increased energy production are expected in the Arctic, Southern Ocean, and other narrower areas, such as the Bay of Guinea or southern Brazil.

Suggested Citation

  • Esnaola, Ganix & Ulazia, Alain & Sáenz, Jon & Ibarra-Berastegi, Gabriel, 2024. "Future changes of global Annual and Seasonal Wind-Energy Production in CMIP6 projections considering air density variation," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 307(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:energy:v:307:y:2024:i:c:s0360544224024800
    DOI: 10.1016/j.energy.2024.132706
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    References listed on IDEAS

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