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China’s electric vehicle and climate ambitions jeopardized by surging critical material prices

Author

Listed:
  • Hetong Wang

    (Shandong University)

  • Kuishuang Feng

    (University of Maryland)

  • Peng Wang

    (Chinese Academy of Sciences
    Chinese Academy of Sciences
    University of Chinese Academy of Sciences)

  • Yuyao Yang

    (Peking University)

  • Laixiang Sun

    (University of Maryland
    SOAS University of London)

  • Fan Yang

    (Aalborg University)

  • Wei-Qiang Chen

    (Chinese Academy of Sciences
    University of Chinese Academy of Sciences)

  • Yiyi Zhang

    (Guangxi University)

  • Jiashuo Li

    (Shandong University)

Abstract

The adoption of electric vehicles (EVs) on a large scale is crucial for meeting the desired climate commitments, where affordability plays a vital role. However, the expected surge in prices of lithium, cobalt, nickel, and manganese, four critical materials in EV batteries, could hinder EV uptake. To explore these impacts in the context of China, the world’s largest EV market, we expand and enrich an integrated assessment model. We find that under a high material cost surge scenario, EVs would account for 35% (2030) and 51% (2060) of the total number of vehicles in China, significantly lower than 49% (2030) and 67% (2060) share in the base-line, leading to a 28% increase in cumulative carbon emissions (2020-2060) from road transportation. While material recycling and technical battery innovation are effective long-term countermeasures, securing the supply chains of critical materials through international cooperation is highly recommended, given geopolitical and environmental fragilities.

Suggested Citation

  • Hetong Wang & Kuishuang Feng & Peng Wang & Yuyao Yang & Laixiang Sun & Fan Yang & Wei-Qiang Chen & Yiyi Zhang & Jiashuo Li, 2023. "China’s electric vehicle and climate ambitions jeopardized by surging critical material prices," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 14(1), pages 1-13, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcom:v:14:y:2023:i:1:d:10.1038_s41467-023-36957-4
    DOI: 10.1038/s41467-023-36957-4
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    4. Zhu-Jun Wang & Zhen-Song Chen & Qin Su & Kwai-Sang Chin & Witold Pedrycz & Mirosław J. Skibniewski, 2024. "Enhancing the sustainability and robustness of critical material supply in electrical vehicle market: an AI-powered supplier selection approach," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 342(1), pages 921-958, November.
    5. Yifan, Zheng & Sida, Zhou & Zhengjie, Zhang & Xinan, Zhou & Rui, Cao & Qiangwei, Li & Zichao, Gao & Chengcheng, Fan & Shichun, Yang, 2024. "A capacity fade reliability model for lithium-ion battery packs based on real-vehicle data," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 307(C).
    6. Ma, Tian & Zhang, Qi & Tang, Yanyan & Liu, Boyu & Li, Yan & Wang, Lu, 2024. "A review on the industrial chain of recycling critical metals from electric vehicle batteries: Current status, challenges, and policy recommendations," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 204(C).
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