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Non-monotonic changes in Asian Water Towers’ streamflow at increasing warming levels

Author

Listed:
  • Tong Cui

    (Tsinghua University)

  • Yukun Li

    (Tsinghua University)

  • Long Yang

    (Nanjing University
    Nanjing University)

  • Yi Nan

    (Tsinghua University)

  • Kunbiao Li

    (Tsinghua University)

  • Mahmut Tudaji

    (Tsinghua University)

  • Hongchang Hu

    (Tsinghua University)

  • Di Long

    (Tsinghua University)

  • Muhammad Shahid

    (University of Engineering and Technology)

  • Ammara Mubeen

    (University of Engineering and Technology
    National University of Sciences and Technology)

  • Zhihua He

    (University of Saskatchewan)

  • Bin Yong

    (Hohai University)

  • Hui Lu

    (Tsinghua University)

  • Chao Li

    (East China Normal University)

  • Guangheng Ni

    (Tsinghua University)

  • Chunhong Hu

    (China Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower Research)

  • Fuqiang Tian

    (Tsinghua University)

Abstract

Previous projections show consistent increases in river flows of Asian Water Towers under future climate change. Here we find non-monotonic changes in river flows for seven major rivers originating from the Tibetan Plateau at the warming levels of 1.5 °C, 2.0 °C, and 3.0 °C based on an observation-constrained hydrological model. The annual mean streamflow for seven rivers at 1.5 °C warming level decreases by 0.1–3.2% relative to the present-day climate condition, and increases by 1.5–12% at 3.0 °C warming level. The shifting river flows for the Yellow, Yangtze, Brahmaputra, and Ganges are mostly influenced by projected increases in rainfall, but those for the Mekong, Salween, and Indus are dictated by the relative changes in rainfall, snowmelt and glacier melt. Reduced river flows in a moderately warmed climate threaten water security in riparian countries, while elevated flood risks are expected with further temperature increases over the Tibetan Plateau.

Suggested Citation

  • Tong Cui & Yukun Li & Long Yang & Yi Nan & Kunbiao Li & Mahmut Tudaji & Hongchang Hu & Di Long & Muhammad Shahid & Ammara Mubeen & Zhihua He & Bin Yong & Hui Lu & Chao Li & Guangheng Ni & Chunhong Hu , 2023. "Non-monotonic changes in Asian Water Towers’ streamflow at increasing warming levels," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 14(1), pages 1-9, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcom:v:14:y:2023:i:1:d:10.1038_s41467-023-36804-6
    DOI: 10.1038/s41467-023-36804-6
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    References listed on IDEAS

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