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Phenological shifts in lake stratification under climate change

Author

Listed:
  • R. Iestyn Woolway

    (Dundalk Institute of Technology
    ECSAT)

  • Sapna Sharma

    (York University)

  • Gesa A. Weyhenmeyer

    (Uppsala University)

  • Andrey Debolskiy

    (Lomonosov Moscow State University
    Obukhov Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Russian Academy of Science
    Moscow Center of Fundamental and Applied Mathematics)

  • Malgorzata Golub

    (Uppsala University)

  • Daniel Mercado-Bettín

    (Catalan Institute for Water Research
    University of Girona)

  • Marjorie Perroud

    (University of Geneva, Institute for Environmental Sciences)

  • Victor Stepanenko

    (Lomonosov Moscow State University
    Moscow Center of Fundamental and Applied Mathematics)

  • Zeli Tan

    (Pacific Northwest National Laboratory)

  • Luke Grant

    (Vrije Universiteit Brussel)

  • Robert Ladwig

    (University of Wisconsin-Madison)

  • Jorrit Mesman

    (Uppsala University
    University of Geneva)

  • Tadhg N. Moore

    (Dundalk Institute of Technology
    Virginia Tech)

  • Tom Shatwell

    (Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research-UFZ)

  • Inne Vanderkelen

    (Vrije Universiteit Brussel)

  • Jay A. Austin

    (University of Minnesota Duluth)

  • Curtis L. DeGasperi

    (King County Water and Land Resources Division)

  • Martin Dokulil

    (University of Innsbruck)

  • Sofia Fuente

    (Dundalk Institute of Technology)

  • Eleanor B. Mackay

    (UK Centre for Ecology & Hydrology, Lancaster Environment Centre)

  • S. Geoffrey Schladow

    (University of California)

  • Shohei Watanabe

    (University of California)

  • Rafael Marcé

    (Catalan Institute for Water Research
    University of Girona)

  • Don C. Pierson

    (Uppsala University)

  • Wim Thiery

    (Vrije Universiteit Brussel)

  • Eleanor Jennings

    (Dundalk Institute of Technology)

Abstract

One of the most important physical characteristics driving lifecycle events in lakes is stratification. Already subtle variations in the timing of stratification onset and break-up (phenology) are known to have major ecological effects, mainly by determining the availability of light, nutrients, carbon and oxygen to organisms. Despite its ecological importance, historic and future global changes in stratification phenology are unknown. Here, we used a lake-climate model ensemble and long-term observational data, to investigate changes in lake stratification phenology across the Northern Hemisphere from 1901 to 2099. Under the high-greenhouse-gas-emission scenario, stratification will begin 22.0 ± 7.0 days earlier and end 11.3 ± 4.7 days later by the end of this century. It is very likely that this 33.3 ± 11.7 day prolongation in stratification will accelerate lake deoxygenation with subsequent effects on nutrient mineralization and phosphorus release from lake sediments. Further misalignment of lifecycle events, with possible irreversible changes for lake ecosystems, is also likely.

Suggested Citation

  • R. Iestyn Woolway & Sapna Sharma & Gesa A. Weyhenmeyer & Andrey Debolskiy & Malgorzata Golub & Daniel Mercado-Bettín & Marjorie Perroud & Victor Stepanenko & Zeli Tan & Luke Grant & Robert Ladwig & Jo, 2021. "Phenological shifts in lake stratification under climate change," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 12(1), pages 1-11, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcom:v:12:y:2021:i:1:d:10.1038_s41467-021-22657-4
    DOI: 10.1038/s41467-021-22657-4
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Zhang, Peng & Li, Kefeng & Liu, Qingyuan & Zou, Qingping & Liang, Ruifeng & Qin, Leilei & Wang, Yuanming, 2024. "Thermal stratification characteristics and cooling water shortage risks for pumped storage reservoir–green data centers under extreme climates," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 229(C).
    2. Jian Zhou & Peter R. Leavitt & Kevin C. Rose & Xiwen Wang & Yibo Zhang & Kun Shi & Boqiang Qin, 2023. "Controls of thermal response of temperate lakes to atmospheric warming," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 14(1), pages 1-9, December.
    3. Janine Brandão de Farias Mesquita & Iran Eduardo Lima Neto, 2022. "Coupling Hydrological and Hydrodynamic Models for Assessing the Impact of Water Pollution on Lake Evaporation," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(20), pages 1-20, October.
    4. Xinyu Li & Shushi Peng & Yi Xi & R. Iestyn Woolway & Gang Liu, 2022. "Earlier ice loss accelerates lake warming in the Northern Hemisphere," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 13(1), pages 1-9, December.
    5. Lei Huang & Axel Timmermann & Sun-Seon Lee & Keith B. Rodgers & Ryohei Yamaguchi & Eui-Seok Chung, 2022. "Emerging unprecedented lake ice loss in climate change projections," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 13(1), pages 1-12, December.
    6. R. Iestyn Woolway, 2023. "The pace of shifting seasons in lakes," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 14(1), pages 1-10, December.
    7. Dibike, Yonas & Marshall, Rebecca & de Rham, Laurent, 2024. "Climatic sensitivity of seasonal ice-cover, water temperature and biogeochemical cycling in Lake 239 of the Experimental Lakes Area (ELA), Ontario, Canada," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 489(C).
    8. Imran Khaliq & Christian Rixen & Florian Zellweger & Catherine H. Graham & Martin M. Gossner & Ian R. McFadden & Laura Antão & Jakob Brodersen & Shyamolina Ghosh & Francesco Pomati & Ole Seehausen & T, 2024. "Warming underpins community turnover in temperate freshwater and terrestrial communities," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 15(1), pages 1-9, December.
    9. Nobre, Regina & Boulêtreau, Stéphanie & Colas, Fanny & Azemar, Frederic & Tudesque, Loïc & Parthuisot, Nathalie & Favriou, Pierre & Cucherousset, Julien, 2023. "Potential ecological impacts of floating photovoltaics on lake biodiversity and ecosystem functioning," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 188(C).

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