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Climate Change Effects on Land Use and Land Cover Suitability in the Southern Brazilian Semiarid Region

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  • Lucas Augusto Pereira da Silva

    (Institute of Geography, Federal University of Uberlândia (UFU), Uberlândia 38408-100, Brazil
    Department of Geosciences, State University of Montes Claros, Montes Claros 39401-089, Brazil)

  • Edson Eyji Sano

    (Brazilian Agricultural Research Corporation (Embrapa Cerrados), Planaltina 73301-970, Brazil)

  • Taya Cristo Parreiras

    (Institute of Geosciences, State University of Campinas (Unicamp), Campinas 13083-855, Brazil)

  • Édson Luis Bolfe

    (Institute of Geosciences, State University of Campinas (Unicamp), Campinas 13083-855, Brazil
    Brazilian Agricultural Research Corporation (Embrapa Agricultura Digital), Campinas 13083-886, Brazil)

  • Mário Marcos Espírito-Santo

    (Department of General Biology, State University of Montes Claros, Montes Claros 39401-089, Brazil)

  • Roberto Filgueiras

    (Department of Agricultural Engineering, Federal University of Viçosa (UFV), Viçosa 36570-900, Brazil)

  • Cristiano Marcelo Pereira de Souza

    (Geology Board, Federal University of Vale do São Francisco, Senhor do Bonfim 48970 000, Brazil)

  • Claudionor Ribeiro da Silva

    (Institute of Geography, Federal University of Uberlândia (UFU), Uberlândia 38408-100, Brazil)

  • Marcos Esdras Leite

    (Department of Geosciences, State University of Montes Claros, Montes Claros 39401-089, Brazil)

Abstract

Climate change is expected to alter the environmental suitability of land use and land cover (LULC) classes globally. In this study, we investigated the potential impacts of climate change on the environmental suitability of the most representative LULC classes in the southern Brazilian semiarid region. We employed the Random Forest algorithm trained with climatic, soil, and topographic data to project future LULC suitability under the Representative Concentration Pathway RCP 2.6 (optimistic) and 8.5 (pessimistic) scenarios. The climate data included the mean annual air temperature and precipitation from the WorldClim2 platform for historical (1970–2000) and future (2061–2080) scenarios. Soil data were obtained from the SoilGrids 2.1 digital soil mapping platform, while topographic data were produced by NASA’s Shuttle Radar Topography Mission (SRTM). Our model achieved an overall accuracy of 60%. Under the worst-case scenario (RCP 8.5), croplands may lose approximately 8% of their suitable area, while pastures are expected to expand by up to 30%. Areas suitable for savannas are expected to increase under both RCP scenarios, potentially expanding into lands historically occupied by forests, grasslands, and eucalyptus plantations. These projected changes may lead to biodiversity loss and socioeconomic disruptions in the study area.

Suggested Citation

  • Lucas Augusto Pereira da Silva & Edson Eyji Sano & Taya Cristo Parreiras & Édson Luis Bolfe & Mário Marcos Espírito-Santo & Roberto Filgueiras & Cristiano Marcelo Pereira de Souza & Claudionor Ribeiro, 2024. "Climate Change Effects on Land Use and Land Cover Suitability in the Southern Brazilian Semiarid Region," Land, MDPI, vol. 13(12), pages 1-20, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jlands:v:13:y:2024:i:12:p:2008-:d:1529294
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    References listed on IDEAS

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