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Simplicity lacks robustness when projecting heat-health outcomes in a changing climate

Author

Listed:
  • Jennifer K. Vanos

    (Arizona State University, School of Sustainability)

  • Jane W. Baldwin

    (Columbia University)

  • Ollie Jay

    (Thermal Ergonomics Laboratory, Faculty of Medicine and Health
    The University of Sydney, Charles Perkins Centre)

  • Kristie L. Ebi

    (University of Washington)

Abstract

Extreme heat adversely affects human health, productivity, and well-being, with more frequent and intense heatwaves projected to increase exposures. However, current risk projections oversimplify critical inter-individual factors of human thermoregulation, resulting in unreliable and unrealistic estimates of future adverse health outcomes.

Suggested Citation

  • Jennifer K. Vanos & Jane W. Baldwin & Ollie Jay & Kristie L. Ebi, 2020. "Simplicity lacks robustness when projecting heat-health outcomes in a changing climate," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 11(1), pages 1-5, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcom:v:11:y:2020:i:1:d:10.1038_s41467-020-19994-1
    DOI: 10.1038/s41467-020-19994-1
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    Cited by:

    1. Jennifer Vanos & Gisel Guzman-Echavarria & Jane W. Baldwin & Coen Bongers & Kristie L. Ebi & Ollie Jay, 2023. "A physiological approach for assessing human survivability and liveability to heat in a changing climate," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 14(1), pages 1-14, December.
    2. Luke A. Parsons & Drew Shindell & Michelle Tigchelaar & Yuqiang Zhang & June T. Spector, 2021. "Increased labor losses and decreased adaptation potential in a warmer world," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 12(1), pages 1-11, December.
    3. Rakin Abrar & Showmitra Kumar Sarkar & Kashfia Tasnim Nishtha & Swapan Talukdar & Shahfahad & Atiqur Rahman & Abu Reza Md Towfiqul Islam & Amir Mosavi, 2022. "Assessing the Spatial Mapping of Heat Vulnerability under Urban Heat Island (UHI) Effect in the Dhaka Metropolitan Area," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(9), pages 1-24, April.
    4. Luke J. Harrington & Dave Frame, 2022. "Extreme heat in New Zealand: a synthesis," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 174(1), pages 1-16, September.
    5. Armand Landreau & Sirkku Juhola & Alexandra Jurgilevich & Aleksi Räsänen, 2021. "Combining socio-economic and climate projections to assess heat risk," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 167(1), pages 1-20, July.

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