IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/nat/natcli/v9y2019i1d10.1038_s41558-018-0358-8.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Agricultural non-CO2 emission reduction potential in the context of the 1.5 °C target

Author

Listed:
  • Stefan Frank

    (International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis)

  • Petr Havlík

    (International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis)

  • Elke Stehfest

    (PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency)

  • Hans Meijl

    (Wageningen Economic Research)

  • Peter Witzke

    (University of Bonn)

  • Ignacio Pérez-Domínguez

    (European Commission, Joint Research Centre)

  • Michiel Dijk

    (International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis
    Wageningen Economic Research)

  • Jonathan C. Doelman

    (PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency)

  • Thomas Fellmann

    (European Commission, Joint Research Centre)

  • Jason F. L. Koopman

    (Wageningen Economic Research)

  • Andrzej Tabeau

    (Wageningen Economic Research)

  • Hugo Valin

    (International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis)

Abstract

Agricultural methane and nitrous oxide emissions represent around 10–12% of total anthropogenic GHG emissions and have a key role to play in achieving a 1.5 °C (above pre-industrial) climate stabilization target. Using a multi-model assessment approach, we quantify the potential contribution of agriculture to the 1.5 °C target and decompose the mitigation potential by emission source, region and mitigation mechanism. The results show that the livestock sector will be vital to achieve emission reductions consistent with the 1.5 °C target mainly through emission-reducing technologies or structural changes. Agriculture may contribute emission reductions of 0.8–1.4 Gt of CO2-equivalent (CO2e) yr−1 at just US$20 per tCO2e in 2050. Combined with dietary changes, emission reductions can be increased to 1.7–1.8 GtCO2e yr−1. At carbon prices compatible with the 1.5 °C target, agriculture could even provide average emission savings of 3.9 GtCO2e yr−1 in 2050, which represents around 8% of current GHG emissions.

Suggested Citation

  • Stefan Frank & Petr Havlík & Elke Stehfest & Hans Meijl & Peter Witzke & Ignacio Pérez-Domínguez & Michiel Dijk & Jonathan C. Doelman & Thomas Fellmann & Jason F. L. Koopman & Andrzej Tabeau & Hugo Va, 2019. "Agricultural non-CO2 emission reduction potential in the context of the 1.5 °C target," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 9(1), pages 66-72, January.
  • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcli:v:9:y:2019:i:1:d:10.1038_s41558-018-0358-8
    DOI: 10.1038/s41558-018-0358-8
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-018-0358-8
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: Access to the full text of the articles in this series is restricted.

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1038/s41558-018-0358-8?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Muhammad, Andrew & Meade, Birgit Gisela Saager, 2011. "International Evidence on Food Consumption Patterns: An Update Using 2005 International Comparison Program Data," Technical Bulletins 120252, United States Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service.
    2. Vermont, Bruno & De Cara, Stéphane, 2010. "How costly is mitigation of non-CO2 greenhouse gas emissions from agriculture?: A meta-analysis," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 69(7), pages 1373-1386, May.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Xingyue Chen & Qifeng Che & Guoxiong Chen & Tingting Hu & Jing Zhang & Qihong Tu, 2025. "Estimation of Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Analysis of Driving Factors in Jiangxi Province’s Livestock Industry from a Life Cycle Perspective," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 17(5), pages 1-23, February.
    2. Miaoling Bu & Weiming Xi & Yu Wang & Guofeng Wang, 2024. "Scenario-Based Modeling of Agricultural Nitrous Oxide Emissions in China," Agriculture, MDPI, vol. 14(11), pages 1-17, November.
    3. Wang, Bin & Deng, Jianqiang & Wang, Tengfei & Zhang, Yiyin & Lan, Jian, 2024. "Optimizing nitrogen application rates to maximize productivity while reducing environmental risk by regulating nitrogen and water utilization in mixed cropping systems," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 303(C).
    4. Hu, Yanan & Duan, Weili & Zou, Shan & Chen, Yaning & De Maeyer, Philippe & Van de Voorde, Tim & Takara, Kaoru & Kayumba, Patient Mindje & Kurban, Alishir & Goethals, Peter L.M., 2024. "Coupling coordination analysis of the water-food-energy‑carbon nexus for crop production in Central Asia," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 369(C).
    5. Wu, Hui & Yue, Qiong & Guo, Ping & Xu, Xiaoyu, 2025. "Exploiting the potential of carbon emission reduction in cropping-livestock systems: Managing water-energy-food nexus for sustainable development," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 377(PB).
    6. Jerome Dumortier & Miguel Carriquiry & Amani Elobeid, 2023. "Interactions Between U.S. Vehicle Electrification, Climate Change, and Global Agricultural Markets," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 84(1), pages 99-123, January.
    7. Pan, Hengyu & Zheng, Xiangyu & Wu, Rui & Liu, Xincong & Xiao, Shijiang & Sun, Lu & Hu, Tianzi & Gao, Ziyan & Yang, Liping & Huang, Chengyi & Zhang, Xiaohong & Deng, Shihuai & Xiao, Yinlong, 2024. "Agriculture related methane emissions embodied in China's interprovincial trade," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 189(PA).
    8. Sam Van Hoof, 2023. "Climate Change Mitigation in Agriculture: Barriers to the Adoption of Carbon Farming Policies in the EU," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(13), pages 1-17, July.
    9. Jensbye, Laerke & Clora, Francesco & Yu, Wusheng, 2022. "Nationally determined contributions and scenarios of agricultural emission reductions at country level," Conference papers 333465, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.
    10. Himics, Mihaly & Giannakis, Elias & Kushta, Jonilda & Hristov, Jordan & Sahoo, Amarendra & Perez-Dominguez, Ignacio, 2022. "Co-benefits of a flexitarian diet for air quality and human health in Europe," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 191(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Stefan Frank & Robert Beach & Petr Havlík & Hugo Valin & Mario Herrero & Aline Mosnier & Tomoko Hasegawa & Jared Creason & Shaun Ragnauth & Michael Obersteiner, 2018. "Structural change as a key component for agricultural non-CO2 mitigation efforts," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 9(1), pages 1-8, December.
    2. Karen Thome & Birgit Meade & Stacey Rosen & John C. Beghin, 2016. "Assessing Food Security in Ethiopia with USDA ERS's New Food Security Modeling Approach," Center for Agricultural and Rural Development (CARD) Publications 16-wp567, Center for Agricultural and Rural Development (CARD) at Iowa State University.
    3. Gerval, Adam & Hansen, James, 2022. "COVID-19 Working Paper: Single Commodity Export Dependence and the Impacts of COVID-19 in Sub-Saharan Africa," USDA Miscellaneous 323866, United States Department of Agriculture.
    4. Kira Lancker & Julia Bronnmann, 2022. "Substitution Preferences for Fish in Senegal," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 82(4), pages 1015-1045, August.
    5. Nelson Villoria & Rachael Garrett & Florian Gollnow & Kimberly Carlson, 2022. "Leakage does not fully offset soy supply-chain efforts to reduce deforestation in Brazil," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 13(1), pages 1-10, December.
    6. Marco Stenborg Petterson & David Seim & Jesse M. Shapiro, 2023. "Bounds on a Slope from Size Restrictions on Economic Shocks," American Economic Journal: Microeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 15(3), pages 552-572, August.
    7. Susan Olivia & John Gibson, 2013. "Using Engel curves to measure CPI bias for Indonesia," Bulletin of Indonesian Economic Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 49(1), pages 85-101, April.
    8. Mun Ho & Wolfgang Britz & Ruth Delzeit & Florian Leblanc & Roberto Roson & Franziska Schuenemann & Matthias Weitzel, 2020. "Modelling Consumption and Constructing Long-Term Baselines in Final Demand," Journal of Global Economic Analysis, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Department of Agricultural Economics, Purdue University, vol. 5(1), pages 63-108, June.
    9. De Cara, Stéphane & Jayet, Pierre-Alain, 2011. "Marginal abatement costs of greenhouse gas emissions from European agriculture, cost effectiveness, and the EU non-ETS burden sharing agreement," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 70(9), pages 1680-1690, July.
    10. Beghin, John C. & Meade, Birgit Gisela Saager & Rosen, Stacey, 2014. "A Consistent Food Demand Framework for International Food Security Assessment," 2014: Food, Resources and Conflict, December 7-9, 2014. San Diego, California 197167, International Agricultural Trade Research Consortium.
    11. Dorfleitner, Gregor & Kreuzer, Christian & Sparrer, Christian, 2022. "To sin in secret is no sin at all: On the linkage of policy, society, culture, and firm characteristics with corporate scandals," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 202(C), pages 762-784.
    12. Gouel, Christophe & Laborde, David, 2021. "The crucial role of domestic and international market-mediated adaptation to climate change," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 106(C).
    13. Anderson, Blake & M'Gonigle, Michael, 2012. "Does ecological economics have a future?," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 84(C), pages 37-48.
    14. Zhou, De & Yu, Xiaohua & Abler, David & Chen, Danhong, 2020. "Projecting meat and cereals demand for China based on a meta-analysis of income elasticities," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 59(C).
    15. Kemal Sarica & İlkay Dellal & Esin Tetik Kollugil & Erdinc Ersoy, 2023. "GHG Emission Mitigation of Turkish Agriculture Sector: Potential and Cost Assessment," Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, Springer, vol. 28(7), pages 1-22, October.
    16. Burggraf, Christine & Kuhn, Lena & Zhao, Qiran & Glauben, Thomas & Teuber, Ramona, 2014. "Economic growth and nutrition transition: an empirical study comparing demand elasticities for foods in China and Russia," 2014 International Congress, August 26-29, 2014, Ljubljana, Slovenia 182828, European Association of Agricultural Economists.
    17. Weiwei Xiong & Katsumasa Tanaka & Philippe Ciais & Daniel J. A. Johansson & Mariliis Lehtveer, 2022. "emIAM v1.0: an emulator for Integrated Assessment Models using marginal abatement cost curves," Papers 2212.12060, arXiv.org.
    18. Wang, Wen, 2015. "Intégrer l'agriculture dans les politiques d'atténuation chinoises," Economics Thesis from University Paris Dauphine, Paris Dauphine University, number 123456789/14999 edited by Perthuis, Christian de.
    19. Clements, Kenneth W. & Gao, Grace, 2015. "The Rotterdam demand model half a century on," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 91-103.
    20. Lancker, Kira & Bronmann, Julia, 2020. "Quantifying consumers’ love for marine biodiversity," 2020 Annual Meeting, July 26-28, Kansas City, Missouri 304214, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:nat:natcli:v:9:y:2019:i:1:d:10.1038_s41558-018-0358-8. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.nature.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.