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Diurnal interaction between urban expansion, climate change and adaptation in US cities

Author

Listed:
  • E. Scott Krayenhoff

    (Arizona State University
    Arizona State University
    University of Guelph)

  • Mohamed Moustaoui

    (Arizona State University
    Arizona State University
    Arizona State University)

  • Ashley M. Broadbent

    (Arizona State University
    Arizona State University)

  • Vishesh Gupta

    (Arizona State University
    Arizona State University)

  • Matei Georgescu

    (Arizona State University
    Arizona State University
    Arizona State University
    Arizona State University)

Abstract

Climate change and urban development are projected to substantially warm US cities, yet dynamic interaction between these two drivers of urban heat may modify the warming. Here, we show that business-as-usual GHG-induced warming and corresponding urban expansion would interact nonlinearly, reducing summer night-time warming by 0.5 K over the twenty-first century in most US regions. Nevertheless, large projected warming remains, particularly at night when the degree of urban expansion warming approaches that of climate change. Joint, high-intensity implementation of adaptation strategies, including cool and evaporative roofs and street trees, decreases projected daytime mean and extreme heat, but region- and emissions scenario-dependent nocturnal warming of 2–7 K persists. A novel adaptation strategy—lightweight urban materials—yields ~1 K night-time cooling and minor daytime warming in denser areas. Our findings highlight the diurnal interplay of urban warming and adaptation cooling, and underscore the inability of infrastructure-based adaptation to offset projected night-time warming, and the consequent necessity for simultaneous emissions reductions.

Suggested Citation

  • E. Scott Krayenhoff & Mohamed Moustaoui & Ashley M. Broadbent & Vishesh Gupta & Matei Georgescu, 2018. "Diurnal interaction between urban expansion, climate change and adaptation in US cities," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 8(12), pages 1097-1103, December.
  • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcli:v:8:y:2018:i:12:d:10.1038_s41558-018-0320-9
    DOI: 10.1038/s41558-018-0320-9
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Jiani Guo & Ming Zhang, 2021. "Exploring the Patterns and Drivers of Urban Expansion in the Texas Triangle Megaregion," Land, MDPI, vol. 10(11), pages 1-19, November.
    2. Cheng He & Yuqiang Zhang & Alexandra Schneider & Renjie Chen & Yan Zhang & Weichun Ma & Patrick L. Kinney & Haidong Kan, 2022. "The inequality labor loss risk from future urban warming and adaptation strategies," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 13(1), pages 1-9, December.
    3. Yating Zhang & Bilal M. Ayyub, 2020. "Projecting heat waves temporally and spatially for local adaptations in a changing climate: Washington D.C. as a case study," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 103(1), pages 731-750, August.
    4. Guangdong Li & Chuanglin Fang & Yingjie Li & Zhenbo Wang & Siao Sun & Sanwei He & Wei Qi & Chao Bao & Haitao Ma & Yupeng Fan & Yuxue Feng & Xiaoping Liu, 2022. "Global impacts of future urban expansion on terrestrial vertebrate diversity," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 13(1), pages 1-12, December.
    5. Anisha Aryal & Kishor Prasad Bhatta & Sanot Adhikari & Himlal Baral, 2022. "Scrutinizing Urbanization in Kathmandu Using Google Earth Engine Together with Proximity-Based Scenario Modelling," Land, MDPI, vol. 12(1), pages 1-16, December.
    6. Yali Wei & Ying Li & Siying Wang & Junyi Wang & Yu Zhu, 2023. "Research on the Spatial Expansion Characteristics and Industrial and Policy Driving Forces of Chengdu–Chongqing Urban Agglomeration Based on NPP-VIIRS Night Light Remote Sensing Data," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(3), pages 1-22, January.
    7. David M. Lapola & Diego R. Braga & Gabriela M. Di Giulio & Roger R. Torres & Maria P. Vasconcellos, 2019. "Heat stress vulnerability and risk at the (super) local scale in six Brazilian capitals," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 154(3), pages 477-492, June.
    8. Jingbin Wang & Huiling Qiao & Jing Liu & Bo Li, 2022. "Does the Establishment of National New Areas Improve Urban Ecological Efficiency? Empirical Evidence Based on Staggered DID Model," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(20), pages 1-21, October.
    9. Mahshid Ghanbari & Mazdak Arabi & Matei Georgescu & Ashley M. Broadbent, 2023. "The role of climate change and urban development on compound dry-hot extremes across US cities," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 14(1), pages 1-12, December.
    10. Jonah D. White & Elizabeth A. Mack & Sharon L. Harlan & E. Scott Krayenhoff & Matei Georgescu & Kyle Redican, 2019. "Regional Multivariate Indices of Water Use Potential for the Continental United States," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(8), pages 1-24, April.
    11. Emanuele Massaro & Rossano Schifanella & Matteo Piccardo & Luca Caporaso & Hannes Taubenböck & Alessandro Cescatti & Gregory Duveiller, 2023. "Spatially-optimized urban greening for reduction of population exposure to land surface temperature extremes," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 14(1), pages 1-10, December.
    12. Samuelson, Holly W. & Baniassadi, Amir & Gonzalez, Pablo Izaga, 2020. "Beyond energy savings: Investigating the co-benefits of heat resilient architecture," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 204(C).
    13. Zheng, Zhonghua & Zhao, Lei & Oleson, Keith W., 2020. "Large model parameter and structural uncertainties in global projections of urban heat waves," Earth Arxiv f5pwa, Center for Open Science.
    14. Rodrigues, Eugénio & Fernandes, Marco S., 2020. "Overheating risk in Mediterranean residential buildings: Comparison of current and future climate scenarios," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 259(C).

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