IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/spr/nathaz/v103y2020i1d10.1007_s11069-020-04008-6.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Projecting heat waves temporally and spatially for local adaptations in a changing climate: Washington D.C. as a case study

Author

Listed:
  • Yating Zhang

    (University of Maryland)

  • Bilal M. Ayyub

    (University of Maryland)

Abstract

Heat waves are posing rising threats to the environment and society due to climate change, urban sprawl, and aging population. To help identify and reduce the vulnerability of cities to extreme heat, this study projects the spatial and temporal variation of heat waves in the twenty-first century and evaluates the performance and cost-effectiveness of heat wave mitigation strategies under future climate conditions. The heat-related condition of Washington D.C. is investigated for such purpose using the high-resolution weather research and forecasting model and the representative concentration pathway 8.5 climate scenario. Results indicate that by the end of the century, the amplitude of heat waves may grow by 5.7 °C, and frequency and duration may increase by more than twofold. The urban heat island effect plays an important role in heat wave growth even though global climate change dominates the variation. Deploying cool roofs and green roofs in Washington D.C. can effectively reduce the amplitude and duration of heat waves, whereas using reflective pavements has relatively little impact. From an economic perspective, cool roofs are more cost-efficient than green roofs and reflective pavements.

Suggested Citation

  • Yating Zhang & Bilal M. Ayyub, 2020. "Projecting heat waves temporally and spatially for local adaptations in a changing climate: Washington D.C. as a case study," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 103(1), pages 731-750, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:nathaz:v:103:y:2020:i:1:d:10.1007_s11069-020-04008-6
    DOI: 10.1007/s11069-020-04008-6
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s11069-020-04008-6
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: Access to the full text of the articles in this series is restricted.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s11069-020-04008-6?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Eugenia Kalnay & Ming Cai, 2003. "Impact of urbanization and land-use change on climate," Nature, Nature, vol. 423(6939), pages 528-531, May.
    2. E. Scott Krayenhoff & Mohamed Moustaoui & Ashley M. Broadbent & Vishesh Gupta & Matei Georgescu, 2018. "Diurnal interaction between urban expansion, climate change and adaptation in US cities," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 8(12), pages 1097-1103, December.
    3. Dana Habeeb & Jason Vargo & Brian Stone, 2015. "Rising heat wave trends in large US cities," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 76(3), pages 1651-1665, April.
    4. Testa, Jenna & Krarti, Moncef, 2017. "A review of benefits and limitations of static and switchable cool roof systems," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 77(C), pages 451-460.
    5. Yan Zhou & J. Shepherd, 2010. "Atlanta’s urban heat island under extreme heat conditions and potential mitigation strategies," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 52(3), pages 639-668, March.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Dana Habeeb & Jason Vargo & Brian Stone, 2015. "Rising heat wave trends in large US cities," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 76(3), pages 1651-1665, April.
    2. Emanuele Massaro & Rossano Schifanella & Matteo Piccardo & Luca Caporaso & Hannes Taubenböck & Alessandro Cescatti & Gregory Duveiller, 2023. "Spatially-optimized urban greening for reduction of population exposure to land surface temperature extremes," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 14(1), pages 1-10, December.
    3. Giuseppina A. Giorgio & Maria Ragosta & Vito Telesca, 2017. "Climate Variability and Industrial-Suburban Heat Environment in a Mediterranean Area," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 9(5), pages 1-10, May.
    4. Yang, Yuanyuan & Bao, Wenkai & Liu, Yansui, 2020. "Scenario simulation of land system change in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 96(C).
    5. Ahmed, Khalid, 2015. "The sheer scale of China’s urban renewal and CO2 emissions: Multiple structural breaks, long-run relationship and short-run dynamics," MPRA Paper 71035, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. Dehwah, Ammar H.A. & Krarti, Moncef, 2021. "Energy performance of integrated adaptive envelope systems for residential buildings," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 233(C).
    7. Alhazmi, Mansour & Sailor, David J. & Levinson, Ronnen, 2023. "A review of challenges, barriers, and opportunities for large-scale deployment of cool surfaces," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 180(C).
    8. Isaac Sarfo & Bi Shuoben & Li Beibei & Solomon Obiri Yeboah Amankwah & Emmanuel Yeboah & John Ernest Koku & Edward Kweku Nunoo & Clement Kwang, 2022. "Spatiotemporal development of land use systems, influences and climate variability in Southwestern Ghana (1970–2020)," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 24(8), pages 9851-9883, August.
    9. Santágata, Daniela M. & Castesana, Paula & Rössler, Cristina E. & Gómez, Darío R., 2017. "Extreme temperature events affecting the electricity distribution system of the metropolitan area of Buenos Aires (1971–2013)," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 106(C), pages 404-414.
    10. Camacho, Carmen & Pérez-Barahona, Agustín, 2015. "Land use dynamics and the environment," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 52(C), pages 96-118.
    11. Lina Eklund & Abdulhakim Abdi & Mine Islar, 2017. "From Producers to Consumers: The Challenges and Opportunities of Agricultural Development in Iraqi Kurdistan," Land, MDPI, vol. 6(2), pages 1-14, June.
    12. Xiaolong Jin & Penghui Jiang & Haoyang Du & Dengshuai Chen & Manchun Li, 2021. "Response of local temperature variation to land cover and land use intensity changes in China over the last 30 years," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 164(3), pages 1-20, February.
    13. Teodoro Semeraro & Roberta Aretano & Amilcare Barca & Alessandro Pomes & Cecilia Del Giudice & Elisa Gatto & Marcello Lenucci & Riccardo Buccolieri & Rohinton Emmanuel & Zhi Gao & Alessandra Scognamig, 2020. "A Conceptual Framework to Design Green Infrastructure: Ecosystem Services as an Opportunity for Creating Shared Value in Ground Photovoltaic Systems," Land, MDPI, vol. 9(8), pages 1-28, July.
    14. Kai Jin & Fei Wang & Deliang Chen & Qiao Jiao & Lei Xia & Luuk Fleskens & Xingmin Mu, 2015. "Assessment of urban effect on observed warming trends during 1955–2012 over China: a case of 45 cities," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 132(4), pages 631-643, October.
    15. Caiyao Xu & Lijie Pu & Ming Zhu & Jianguo Li & Xinjian Chen & Xiaohan Wang & Xuefeng Xie, 2016. "Ecological Security and Ecosystem Services in Response to Land Use Change in the Coastal Area of Jiangsu, China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 8(8), pages 1-24, August.
    16. Hongyan Cai & Xinliang Xu, 2017. "Impacts of Built-Up Area Expansion in 2D and 3D on Regional Surface Temperature," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 9(10), pages 1-16, October.
    17. Jinling Quan, 2019. "Multi-Temporal Effects of Urban Forms and Functions on Urban Heat Islands Based on Local Climate Zone Classification," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 16(12), pages 1-35, June.
    18. Jiajie Xin & Mingjin Zhan & Bin Xu & Haijun Li & Longfei Zhan, 2023. "Variations of Extreme Temperature Event Indices in Six Temperature Zones in China from 1961 to 2020," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(15), pages 1-15, July.
    19. Guibor Camargo & Andrés Miguel Sampayo & Andrés Peña Galindo & Francisco J Escobedo & Fernando Carriazo & Alejandro Feged-Rivadeneira, 2020. "Exploring the dynamics of migration, armed conflict, urbanization, and anthropogenic change in Colombia," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 15(11), pages 1-18, November.
    20. Sridhara Nayak, 2021. "Land use and land cover change and their impact on temperature over central India," Letters in Spatial and Resource Sciences, Springer, vol. 14(2), pages 129-140, August.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spr:nathaz:v:103:y:2020:i:1:d:10.1007_s11069-020-04008-6. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.