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Sources and implications of deep uncertainties surrounding sea-level projections

Author

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  • Alexander M. R. Bakker

    (Pennsylvania State University
    Rijkswaterstaat, Ministry of Infrastructure and the Environment)

  • Domitille Louchard

    (Aix-Marseille University, Mediterranean Institute of Oceanography (MIO) UM110, CEREGE UM34
    ETH Zürich)

  • Klaus Keller

    (Pennsylvania State University
    Pennsylvania State University
    Carnegie Mellon University)

Abstract

Long-term flood risk management often relies on future sea-level projections. Projected uncertainty ranges are however widely divergent as a result of different methodological choices. The IPCC has condensed this deep uncertainty into a single uncertainty range covering 66% probability or more. Alternatively, structured expert judgment summarizes divergent expert opinions in a single distribution. Recently published uncertainty ranges that are derived from these “consensus” assessments appear to differ by up to a factor four. This might result in overconfidence or overinvestment in strategies to cope with sea-level change. Here we explore possible reasons for these different interpretations. This is important for (i) the design of robust strategies and (ii) the exploration of pathways that may eventually lead to some kind of consensus distributions that are relatively straightforward to interpret.

Suggested Citation

  • Alexander M. R. Bakker & Domitille Louchard & Klaus Keller, 2017. "Sources and implications of deep uncertainties surrounding sea-level projections," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 140(3), pages 339-347, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:climat:v:140:y:2017:i:3:d:10.1007_s10584-016-1864-1
    DOI: 10.1007/s10584-016-1864-1
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Jérémy Rohmer & Gonéri Cozannet & Jean-Charles Manceau, 2019. "Addressing ambiguity in probabilistic assessments of future coastal flooding using possibility distributions," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 155(1), pages 95-109, July.
    2. G. Guthrie, 2021. "Adapting to Rising Sea Levels: How Short-Term Responses Complement Long-Term Investment," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 78(4), pages 635-668, April.
    3. Rui Shi & Benjamin F. Hobbs & Huai Jiang, 2019. "When can decision analysis improve climate adaptation planning? Two procedures to match analysis approaches with adaptation problems," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 157(3), pages 611-630, December.

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