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A multi-model assessment of inequality and climate change

Author

Listed:
  • Johannes Emmerling

    (CMCC Foundation – Euro-Mediterranean Center on Climate Change
    RFF–CMCC European Institute on Economics and the Environment)

  • Pietro Andreoni

    (CMCC Foundation – Euro-Mediterranean Center on Climate Change
    RFF–CMCC European Institute on Economics and the Environment
    Politecnico di Milano)

  • Ioannis Charalampidis

    (E3Modelling)

  • Shouro Dasgupta

    (Centro Euro-Mediterraneo sui Cambiamenti Climatici (CMCC)
    Università Ca’ Foscari Venezia
    London School of Economics and Political Science (LSE))

  • Francis Dennig

    (United Nations Development Programme)

  • Simon Feindt

    (Mercator Research Institute on Global Commons and Climate Change (MCC)
    Technische Universität Berlin
    Member of the Leibniz Association)

  • Dimitris Fragkiadakis

    (E3Modelling)

  • Panagiotis Fragkos

    (E3Modelling)

  • Shinichiro Fujimori

    (Kyoto University)

  • Martino Gilli

    (RFF–CMCC European Institute on Economics and the Environment
    Università Bocconi)

  • Carolina Grottera

    (Federal University of Rio de Janeiro (CentroClima/PPE/COPPE/UFRJ))

  • Celine Guivarch

    (Centre International de Recherche sur l’Environnement et le Développement (CIRED)
    Ecole des Ponts)

  • Ulrike Kornek

    (Mercator Research Institute on Global Commons and Climate Change (MCC)
    Member of the Leibniz Association
    Christian-Albrechts-Universität Kiel)

  • Elmar Kriegler

    (Member of the Leibniz Association
    University of Potsdam)

  • Daniele Malerba

    (German Institute of Development and Sustainability (IDOS))

  • Giacomo Marangoni

    (RFF–CMCC European Institute on Economics and the Environment
    Delft University of Technology)

  • Aurélie Méjean

    (Centre International de Recherche sur l’Environnement et le Développement (CIRED)
    CNRS (Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique))

  • Femke Nijsse

    (University of Exeter)

  • Franziska Piontek

    (Member of the Leibniz Association)

  • Yeliz Simsek

    (University of Exeter
    Australian National University)

  • Bjoern Soergel

    (Member of the Leibniz Association)

  • Nicolas Taconet

    (Member of the Leibniz Association)

  • Toon Vandyck

    (KU Leuven)

  • Marie Young-Brun

    (Halle Institute for Economic Research
    University of Leipzig)

  • Shiya Zhao

    (Kyoto University)

  • Yu Zheng

    (Centre d’Études Prospectives et d’Informations Internationales (CEPII))

  • Massimo Tavoni

    (CMCC Foundation – Euro-Mediterranean Center on Climate Change
    RFF–CMCC European Institute on Economics and the Environment
    Politecnico di Milano)

Abstract

Climate change and inequality are critical and interrelated issues. Despite growing empirical evidence on the distributional implications of climate policies and climate risks, mainstream model-based assessments are often silent on the interplay between climate change and economic inequality. Here we fill this gap through an ensemble of eight large-scale integrated assessment models that belong to different economic paradigms and feature income heterogeneity. We quantify the distributional implications of climate impacts and of the varying compensation schemes of climate policies compatible with the goals of the Paris Agreement. By 2100, climate impacts will increase inequality by 1.4 points of the Gini index on average. Maintaining global mean temperature below 1.5 °C reduces long-term inequality increase by two-thirds but increases it slightly in the short term. However, equal per-capita redistribution can offset the short-term effect, lowering the Gini index by almost two points. We quantify model uncertainty and find robust evidence that well-designed policies can help stabilize climate and promote economic inclusion.

Suggested Citation

  • Johannes Emmerling & Pietro Andreoni & Ioannis Charalampidis & Shouro Dasgupta & Francis Dennig & Simon Feindt & Dimitris Fragkiadakis & Panagiotis Fragkos & Shinichiro Fujimori & Martino Gilli & Caro, 2024. "A multi-model assessment of inequality and climate change," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 14(12), pages 1254-1260, December.
  • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcli:v:14:y:2024:i:12:d:10.1038_s41558-024-02151-7
    DOI: 10.1038/s41558-024-02151-7
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
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    Cited by:

    1. Dang, Hai-Anh H. & Cong Nguyen, Minh & Trinh, Trong-Anh, 2023. "Does hotter temperature increase poverty and inequality? Global evidence from subnational data analysis," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 120156, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    2. Dang,Hai-Anh H. & Nguyen,Minh Cong & Trinh,Trong-Anh, 2023. "Does Hotter Temperature Increase Poverty and Inequality ? Global Evidence from SubnationalData Analysis," Policy Research Working Paper Series 10466, The World Bank.

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