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Climate intervention on a high-emissions pathway could delay but not prevent West Antarctic Ice Sheet demise

Author

Listed:
  • J. Sutter

    (University of Bern
    University of Bern)

  • A. Jones

    (Met Office)

  • T. L. Frölicher

    (University of Bern
    University of Bern)

  • C. Wirths

    (University of Bern
    University of Bern)

  • T. F. Stocker

    (University of Bern
    University of Bern)

Abstract

Solar radiation modification (SRM) is increasingly discussed as a tool to reduce or avert global warming and concomitantly the risk of ice-sheet collapse, as is considered possible for the West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS). Here we analyse the impact of stratospheric aerosol injections on the centennial-to-millennial Antarctic sea-level contribution using an ice-sheet model. We find that mid-twenty-first-century large-scale SRM could delay but ultimately not prevent WAIS collapse in a high-emissions scenario. On intermediate-emissions pathways, SRM could be an effective tool to delay or even prevent an instability of WAIS if deployed by mid-century. However, SRM interventions may be associated with substantial risks, commitments and unintended side effects; therefore, emissions reductions to prevent WAIS collapse seem to be the more practical and sensible approach at the current stage.

Suggested Citation

  • J. Sutter & A. Jones & T. L. Frölicher & C. Wirths & T. F. Stocker, 2023. "Climate intervention on a high-emissions pathway could delay but not prevent West Antarctic Ice Sheet demise," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 13(9), pages 951-960, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcli:v:13:y:2023:i:9:d:10.1038_s41558-023-01738-w
    DOI: 10.1038/s41558-023-01738-w
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    References listed on IDEAS

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