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Inequitable patterns of US flood risk in the Anthropocene

Author

Listed:
  • Oliver E. J. Wing

    (Fathom
    University of Bristol)

  • William Lehman

    (US Army Corps of Engineers)

  • Paul D. Bates

    (Fathom
    University of Bristol)

  • Christopher C. Sampson

    (Fathom)

  • Niall Quinn

    (Fathom)

  • Andrew M. Smith

    (Fathom)

  • Jeffrey C. Neal

    (Fathom
    University of Bristol)

  • Jeremy R. Porter

    (First Street Foundation
    Columbia University
    City University of New York)

  • Carolyn Kousky

    (University of Pennsylvania)

Abstract

Current flood risk mapping, relying on historical observations, fails to account for increasing threat under climate change. Incorporating recent developments in inundation modelling, here we show a 26.4% (24.1–29.1%) increase in US flood risk by 2050 due to climate change alone under RCP4.5. Our national depiction of comprehensive and high-resolution flood risk estimates in the United States indicates current average annual losses of US$32.1 billion (US$30.5–33.8 billion) in 2020’s climate, which are borne disproportionately by poorer communities with a proportionally larger White population. The future increase in risk will disproportionately impact Black communities, while remaining concentrated on the Atlantic and Gulf coasts. Furthermore, projected population change (SSP2) could cause flood risk increases that outweigh the impact of climate change fourfold. These results make clear the need for adaptation to flood and emergent climate risks in the United States, with mitigation required to prevent the acceleration of these risks.

Suggested Citation

  • Oliver E. J. Wing & William Lehman & Paul D. Bates & Christopher C. Sampson & Niall Quinn & Andrew M. Smith & Jeffrey C. Neal & Jeremy R. Porter & Carolyn Kousky, 2022. "Inequitable patterns of US flood risk in the Anthropocene," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 12(2), pages 156-162, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcli:v:12:y:2022:i:2:d:10.1038_s41558-021-01265-6
    DOI: 10.1038/s41558-021-01265-6
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    1. Sanne Muis & Martin Verlaan & Hessel C. Winsemius & Jeroen C. J. H. Aerts & Philip J. Ward, 2016. "A global reanalysis of storm surges and extreme sea levels," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 7(1), pages 1-12, September.
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    1. Hennighausen, Hannah & Liao, Yanjun & Nolte, Christoph & Pollack, Adam, 2023. "Flood insurance reforms, housing market dynamics, and adaptation to climate risks," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 62(C).
    2. Xu, Yilan & Huang, Yi, 2022. "Does climate change news inform flood insurance take?," 2022 Annual Meeting, July 31-August 2, Anaheim, California 322178, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    3. Hashida, Yukiko & Dundas, Steven J., 2023. "The effects of a voluntary property buyout and acquisition program on coastal housing markets: Evidence from New York," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 121(C).
    4. Hemal Dey & Wanyun Shao & Hamid Moradkhani & Barry D. Keim & Brad G. Peter, 2024. "Urban flood susceptibility mapping using frequency ratio and multiple decision tree-based machine learning models," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 120(11), pages 10365-10393, September.
    5. Walls, Margaret A. & Ferreira, Celso & Liao, Yanjun (Penny) & Pesek, Sophie, 2023. "Jobs at Risk: Sea Level Rise, Coastal Flooding, and Local Economies," RFF Working Paper Series 23-12, Resources for the Future.
    6. Andreas N. Angelakis & Andrea G. Capodaglio & Mohammad Valipour & Jens Krasilnikoff & Abdelkader T. Ahmed & Laila Mandi & Vasileios A. Tzanakakis & Alper Baba & Rohitashw Kumar & Xiaoyun Zheng & Zhang, 2023. "Evolution of Floods: From Ancient Times to the Present Times (ca 7600 BC to the Present) and the Future," Land, MDPI, vol. 12(6), pages 1-52, June.
    7. Youngho Kim, 2024. "Payments for Ecosystem Services Programs and Climate Change Adaptation in Agriculture," Economics Series Working Papers 1054, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    8. Joakim A. Weill, 2023. "Flood Risk Mapping and the Distributional Impacts of Climate Information," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2023-066, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    9. Joakim Weill, 2023. "Flood Risk Mapping and the Distributional Impacts of Climate Information," Working Papers 2023.10, FAERE - French Association of Environmental and Resource Economists.
    10. Liao, Yanjun (Penny) & Sølvsten, Simon & Whitlock, Zachary, 2024. "Community Responses to Flooding in Risk Mitigation Actions: Evidence from the Community Rating System," RFF Working Paper Series 24-08, Resources for the Future.
    11. Ayat Al Assi & Rubayet Bin Mostafiz & Carol J. Friedland & Robert V. Rohli & Arash Taghinezhad & Md Adilur Rahim, 2023. "Cost-effectiveness of federal CDBG-DR Road Home Program mitigation assistance in Jefferson Parish, Louisiana," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 117(2), pages 1291-1319, June.
    12. Caroline J. Williams & Rachel A. Davidson & Linda K. Nozick & Meghan Millea & Jamie L. Kruse & Joseph E. Trainor, 2023. "Single-family housing inventory projection method for natural hazard risk modeling applications," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 119(1), pages 409-434, October.
    13. repec:ags:aaea22:335971 is not listed on IDEAS

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