IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/mfj/journl/v2y1998i2p101-132.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Regime-Switching in Emerging Stock Market Returns

Author

Listed:
  • Kodjovi G. Assoe

    (Ecole des Hautes Etudes Commerciales, Canada)

Abstract

Many emerging markets have experienced significant changes in government policies and capital market reforms. These changes may lead to changes in their return-generating processes. Based on Markov-switching models, this paper investigates whether there is more than one regime in the return-generating processes of nine emerging markets and the specific characteristics of each regime. The results show very strong evidence of regime-switching behavior in emerging stock market returns. The two regimes through which emerging markets evolve are different whether one takes the domestic investors' perspective or that of foreign investors. For foreign investors, changes in volatility seem to be the main characteristic of emerging market regimes. The implications of these findings for the stability of emerging stock markets are discussed.

Suggested Citation

  • Kodjovi G. Assoe, 1998. "Regime-Switching in Emerging Stock Market Returns," Multinational Finance Journal, Multinational Finance Journal, vol. 2(2), pages 101-132, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:mfj:journl:v:2:y:1998:i:2:p:101-132
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.mfsociety.org/modules/modDashboard/uploadFiles/journals/MJ~629~p16sobislu1i3014vfhord73utu3.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: http://www.mfsociety.org/modules/modDashboard/uploadFiles/journals/googleScholar/649.html
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Anthony J. Richards, 1996. "Volatility and Predictability in National Stock Markets: How Do Emerging and Mature Markets Differ?," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 43(3), pages 461-501, September.
    2. Hansen, Bruce E, 1992. "The Likelihood Ratio Test under Nonstandard Conditions: Testing the Markov Switching Model of GNP," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 7(S), pages 61-82, Suppl. De.
    3. Domowitz, Ian & Glen, Jack & Madhavan, Ananth, 1997. "Market Segmentation and Stock Prices: Evidence from an Emerging Market," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 52(3), pages 1059-1085, July.
    4. Turner, Christopher M. & Startz, Richard & Nelson, Charles R., 1989. "A Markov model of heteroskedasticity, risk, and learning in the stock market," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 25(1), pages 3-22, November.
    5. Garcia, Rene & Ghysels, Eric, 1998. "Structural change and asset pricing in emerging markets," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 17(3), pages 455-473, June.
    6. Harvey, Campbell R, 1995. "Predictable Risk and Returns in Emerging Markets," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 8(3), pages 773-816.
    7. Garcia, Rene & Perron, Pierre, 1996. "An Analysis of the Real Interest Rate under Regime Shifts," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 78(1), pages 111-125, February.
    8. van Norden Simon & Vigfusson Robert, 1998. "Avoiding the Pitfalls: Can Regime-Switching Tests Reliably Detect Bubbles?," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 3(1), pages 1-24, April.
    9. Richardson, Matthew & Smith, Tom, 1993. "A Test for Multivariate Normality in Stock Returns," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 66(2), pages 295-321, April.
    10. Bekaert, Geert & Harvey, Campbell R, 1995. "Time-Varying World Market Integration," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 50(2), pages 403-444, June.
    11. Bekaert, Geert & Harvey, Campbell R., 1997. "Emerging equity market volatility," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 43(1), pages 29-77, January.
    12. Huntley Schaller & Simon Van Norden, 1997. "Regime switching in stock market returns," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 7(2), pages 177-191.
    13. Perron, Pierre, 1989. "The Great Crash, the Oil Price Shock, and the Unit Root Hypothesis," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(6), pages 1361-1401, November.
    14. De Santis, Giorgio & imrohoroglu, Selahattin, 1997. "Stock returns and volatility in emerging financial markets," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 16(4), pages 561-579, August.
    15. Hamilton, James D, 1989. "A New Approach to the Economic Analysis of Nonstationary Time Series and the Business Cycle," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(2), pages 357-384, March.
    16. Bekaert, Geert, 1995. "Market Integration and Investment Barriers in Emerging Equity Markets," The World Bank Economic Review, World Bank, vol. 9(1), pages 75-107, January.
    17. van Norden, Simon & Schaller, Huntley, 1993. "The Predictability of Stock Market Regime: Evidence from the Toronto Stock Exchange," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 75(3), pages 505-510, August.
    18. Garcia, Rene, 1998. "Asymptotic Null Distribution of the Likelihood Ratio Test in Markov Switching Models," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 39(3), pages 763-788, August.
    19. Cai, Jun, 1994. "A Markov Model of Switching-Regime ARCH," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 12(3), pages 309-316, July.
    20. Hamilton, James D. & Susmel, Raul, 1994. "Autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity and changes in regime," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 64(1-2), pages 307-333.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Eduardo Roca & Victor Wong, 2008. "An analysis of the sensitivity of Australian superannuation funds to market movements: a Markov regime switching approach," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 18(7), pages 583-597.
    2. Don U.A. Galagedera & Roland Shami, 2003. "Association between Markov regime-switching market volatility and beta risk: Evidence from Dow Jones industrial securities," Monash Econometrics and Business Statistics Working Papers 20/03, Monash University, Department of Econometrics and Business Statistics.
    3. Girardin, Eric & Liu, Zhenya, 2007. "The financial integration of China: New evidence on temporally aggregated data for the A-share market," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 18(3), pages 354-371.
    4. Carl H. Korkpoe & Peterson Owusu Junior, 2018. "Behaviour of Johannesburg Stock Exchange All Share Index Returns - An Asymmetric GARCH and News Impact Effects Approach," SPOUDAI Journal of Economics and Business, SPOUDAI Journal of Economics and Business, University of Piraeus, vol. 68(1), pages 26-42, January-M.
    5. Gulnur Muradoglu & Hakan Berument & Kivilcim Metin, 1999. "Financial Crisis and Changes in Determinants of Risk and Return: An Empirical Investigation of an Emerging Market (ISE)," Multinational Finance Journal, Multinational Finance Journal, vol. 3(4), pages 223-252, December.
    6. Bejaoui, Azza & Karaa, Adel, 2016. "Revisiting the bull and bear markets notions in the Tunisian stock market: New evidence from multi-state duration-dependence Markov-switching models," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 529-545.
    7. Don U.A. Galagedera & Roland G. Shami, 2004. "Beta Risk and Regime Shift in Market Volatility," Econometric Society 2004 Australasian Meetings 126, Econometric Society.
    8. Eric Girard & Amit Sinha, 2006. "Does Total Risk Matter? The Case of Emerging Markets," Multinational Finance Journal, Multinational Finance Journal, vol. 10(1-2), pages 117-151, March-Jun.
    9. Li, Hong, 2013. "Integration versus segmentation in China's stock market: An analysis of time-varying beta risks," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 25(C), pages 88-105.
    10. Liliana Gonzalez & Philip Hoang & John G. Powell Massey & Jing Shi, 2006. "Defining and Dating Bull and Bear Markets: Two Centuries of Evidence," Multinational Finance Journal, Multinational Finance Journal, vol. 10(1-2), pages 81-116, March-Jun.
    11. Joshua Seungwook Bahng, 2004. "Structural Breaks and the Normality of Stock Returns," Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics (SJES), Swiss Society of Economics and Statistics (SSES), vol. 140(II), pages 207-227, June.
    12. Angelidis, Timotheos & Tessaromatis, Nikolaos, 2009. "Idiosyncratic risk matters! A regime switching approach," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 18(1), pages 132-141, January.
    13. Nikkinen, Jussi, 2003. "Impact of foreign ownership restrictions on stock return distributions: evidence from an option market," Journal of Multinational Financial Management, Elsevier, vol. 13(2), pages 141-159, April.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Sean D. Campbell, 2002. "Specification Testing and Semiparametric Estimation of Regime Switching Models: An Examination of the US Short Term Interest Rate," Working Papers 2002-26, Brown University, Department of Economics.
    2. Bekaert, Geert & Harvey, Campbell R., 2003. "Emerging markets finance," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 10(1-2), pages 3-56, February.
    3. Georgios Kouretas & Manolis Syllignakis, 2012. "Switching Volatility in Emerging Stock Markets and Financial Liberalization: Evidence from the new EU Member Countries," Central European Journal of Economic Modelling and Econometrics, Central European Journal of Economic Modelling and Econometrics, vol. 4(2), pages 65-93, June.
    4. Aloui, Chaker & Hammoudeh, Shawkat & Hamida, Hela Ben, 2015. "Price discovery and regime shift behavior in the relationship between sharia stocks and sukuk: A two-state Markov switching analysis," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 121-135.
    5. Baele, Lieven, 2005. "Volatility Spillover Effects in European Equity Markets," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 40(2), pages 373-401, June.
    6. Wang, Ping & Theobald, Mike, 2008. "Regime-switching volatility of six East Asian emerging markets," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 22(3), pages 267-283, September.
    7. Gerald Kohers & Ninon Kohers & Theodor Kohers, 2006. "The risk and return characteristics of developed and emerging stock markets: the recent evidence," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 13(11), pages 737-743.
    8. Baele, L., 2003. "Volatility Spillover Effects in European Equity Markets," Other publications TiSEM dae0be49-4f32-433e-822b-1, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    9. Bekaert, Geert & Harvey, Campbell R., 2002. "Research in emerging markets finance: looking to the future," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 3(4), pages 429-448, December.
    10. Bekaert, Geert & Harvey, Campbell R. & Lumsdaine, Robin L., 2002. "Dating the integration of world equity markets," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 65(2), pages 203-247, August.
    11. Kim, Chang-Jin & Morley, James C. & Nelson, Charles R., 2001. "Does an intertemporal tradeoff between risk and return explain mean reversion in stock prices?," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 8(4), pages 403-426, September.
    12. Walid, Chkili & Chaker, Aloui & Masood, Omar & Fry, John, 2011. "Stock market volatility and exchange rates in emerging countries: A Markov-state switching approach," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 12(3), pages 272-292, September.
    13. King, Daniel & Botha, Ferdi, 2015. "Modelling stock return volatility dynamics in selected African markets," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 50-73.
    14. Lieven Baele & Koen Inghelbrecht, 2005. "Structural versus Temporary Drivers of Country and Industry Risk," International Finance 0511005, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    15. Wasim Ahmad & N. Bhanumurthy & Sanjay Sehgal, 2015. "Regime dependent dynamics and European stock markets: Is asset allocation really possible?," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 42(1), pages 77-107, February.
    16. Geert Bekaert & Campbell R. Harvey, 2000. "Foreign Speculators and Emerging Equity Markets," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 55(2), pages 565-613, April.
    17. Huang, Jia-Ping & Sumita, Ushio, 2015. "Development of computational algorithms for pricing European bond options under the influence of macro-economic conditions," Applied Mathematics and Computation, Elsevier, vol. 251(C), pages 453-468.
    18. Chung-Ming Kuan, 2013. "Markov switching model (in Russian)," Quantile, Quantile, issue 11, pages 13-40, December.
    19. Zobia Israr Ahmed & Khalid Mustafa, 2019. "Regime-Dependent Effects on Stock Market Return Dynamics: Evidence from SAARC Countries," Asian Development Policy Review, Asian Economic and Social Society, vol. 7(2), pages 111-132, June.
    20. Li, Hong, 2013. "Integration versus segmentation in China's stock market: An analysis of time-varying beta risks," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 25(C), pages 88-105.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    emerging markets; regime-switching; international investment;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F21 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - International Investment; Long-Term Capital Movements
    • F30 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - General
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:mfj:journl:v:2:y:1998:i:2:p:101-132. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Theodossiou Panayiotis (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/mfsssea.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.