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Idiosyncratic risk matters! A regime switching approach

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  • Angelidis, Timotheos
  • Tessaromatis, Nikolaos

Abstract

The evidence on the inter-temporal relation between idiosyncratic risk and future stock returns is conflicting and confusing. We shed new light on the issue using a more flexible econometric approach based on [Hamilton, J.D. 1989. A new approach to the economic analysis of nonstationary time series and the business cycle. Econometrica, 57, 357-384.] regime switching model that accommodates the parameter instability of the forecasting relation between returns and financial variables. We find strong evidence suggesting that idiosyncratic risk is related to future stock market returns only in the low variance regime.

Suggested Citation

  • Angelidis, Timotheos & Tessaromatis, Nikolaos, 2009. "Idiosyncratic risk matters! A regime switching approach," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 18(1), pages 132-141, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:reveco:v:18:y:2009:i:1:p:132-141
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    3. Miralles-Marcelo, José Luis & Miralles-Quirós, María del Mar & Miralles-Quirós, José Luis, 2012. "Asset pricing with idiosyncratic risk: The Spanish case," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 21(1), pages 261-271.
    4. Pilar Abad Romero & María Dolores Robles Fernández, 2012. "Credit rating agencies and unsystematic risk: Is there a linkage?," Documentos de Trabajo del ICAE 2012-17, Universidad Complutense de Madrid, Facultad de Ciencias Económicas y Empresariales, Instituto Complutense de Análisis Económico.
    5. Huang, Chia-Wei & Ho, Po-Hsin & Lin, Chih-Yung & Yen, Ju-Fang, 2014. "Firm age, idiosyncratic risk, and long-run SEO underperformance," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 246-266.
    6. Qadan, Mahmoud, 2019. "Risk appetite, idiosyncratic volatility and expected returns," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 65(C).
    7. Abad, Pilar & Robles, M. Dolores, 2014. "Credit rating agencies and idiosyncratic risk: Is there a linkage? Evidence from the Spanish Market," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 152-171.
    8. Gurudeo Anand Tularam & Rajibur Reza, 2016. "Water exchange traded funds: A study on idiosyncratic risk using Markov switching analysis," Cogent Economics & Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 4(1), pages 1139437-113, December.
    9. Guo, Haifeng & Brooks, Robert & Shami, Roland, 2010. "Detecting hot and cold cycles using a Markov regime switching model--Evidence from the Chinese A-share IPO market," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 19(2), pages 196-210, April.
    10. W K Adrian Cheung & Huimin Li & Eduardo Roca, 2010. "The Performance of Socially Responsible Investments Across Different Market Regimes," Discussion Papers in Finance finance:201018, Griffith University, Department of Accounting, Finance and Economics.
    11. Stavros Degiannakis & Andreas Andrikopoulos & Timotheos Angelidis & Christos Floros, 2013. "Return dispersion, stock market liquidity and aggregate economic activity," Working Papers 166, Bank of Greece.
    12. Mu-Shun Wang, 2013. "Idiosyncratic Volatility and the Expected Stock Returns for Exploring the Relationship with Panel Threshold Regression," Asia-Pacific Financial Markets, Springer;Japanese Association of Financial Economics and Engineering, vol. 20(2), pages 113-129, May.
    13. Constandina Koki & Stefanos Leonardos & Georgios Piliouras, 2020. "Exploring the Predictability of Cryptocurrencies via Bayesian Hidden Markov Models," Papers 2011.03741, arXiv.org, revised Dec 2020.
    14. Lin, Bing-Huei & Lin, Yueh-Neng & Chen, Yin-Jung, 2012. "Volatility risk premium decomposition of LIFFE equity options," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(C), pages 315-326.
    15. Yuan, Chunming, 2011. "Forecasting exchange rates: The multi-state Markov-switching model with smoothing," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 20(2), pages 342-362, April.
    16. Malagon, Juliana & Moreno, David & Rodríguez, Rosa, 2018. "Idiosyncratic volatility, conditional liquidity and stock returns," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 118-132.

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