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Price discovery and regime shift behavior in the relationship between sharia stocks and sukuk: A two-state Markov switching analysis

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  • Aloui, Chaker
  • Hammoudeh, Shawkat
  • Hamida, Hela Ben

Abstract

The main purpose of this study is to analyze the interactive linkages between the sharia stocks and sukuk (Islamic bonds) in the Gulf Cooperation Countries (GCC), using the bivariate two-state Markov switching regime EGARCH of Henry (2009). The results support the presence of two different regimes in both the conditional mean and the conditional variance of those sharia stock and sukuk returns. The first regime corresponds to a high mean–low variance regime and the second is characterized by a low mean–high variance. Furthermore, our results point out that the linkages between the sharia stocks and sukuk GCC markets are also regime-dependent and the sharia stock market volatility reacts asymmetrically to events in the sukuk markets. Additionally, we provide to the literature new evidence which asserts that changes in the GCC sukuk price index have a significant impact on the probability of transmission across regimes. Our findings have several economic and managerial implications for Islamic portfolio managers, Islamic hedge funds, stock market regulators, and policy makers.

Suggested Citation

  • Aloui, Chaker & Hammoudeh, Shawkat & Hamida, Hela Ben, 2015. "Price discovery and regime shift behavior in the relationship between sharia stocks and sukuk: A two-state Markov switching analysis," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 121-135.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:pacfin:v:34:y:2015:i:c:p:121-135
    DOI: 10.1016/j.pacfin.2015.06.004
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    3. Paltrinieri, Andrea & Hassan, Mohammad Kabir & Bahoo, Salman & Khan, Ashraf, 2023. "A bibliometric review of sukuk literature," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 86(C), pages 897-918.
    4. Lim, Siok Jin, 2020. "Portfolio diversification opportunities for U.S. Islamic investors with its trading partners when the world catches a cold: A Multivariate-GARCH and wavelet approach," MPRA Paper 103295, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. Linnenluecke, Martina K. & Chen, Xiaoyan & Ling, Xin & Smith, Tom & Zhu, Yushu, 2017. "Research in finance: A review of influential publications and a research agenda," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 188-199.
    6. Rima Ayu Shintyawati & Caturida Meiwanto Doktoralina & Nurhasanah & Sri Anah, 2020. "The Volume of Issuance of Government Islamic Securities SR-007 Series, 2015¨C2018," International Journal of Financial Research, International Journal of Financial Research, Sciedu Press, vol. 11(5), pages 56-68, October.
    7. Mantai, Mohammed Mahmoud & Masih, Mansur, 2016. "Do changes in shariah screening methodology make islamic indices substitutes or complements? an application of MGARCH-DCC and markov switching analysis," MPRA Paper 72166, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    8. Yousaf, Imran & Yarovaya, Larisa, 2022. "Spillovers between the Islamic gold-backed cryptocurrencies and equity markets during the COVID-19: A sectorial analysis," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 71(C).
    9. Hassan, Fatimatul & Masih, Mansur, 2018. "Relationship between crude oil prices and global sukuk (islamic bond) index: evidence from Dow Jones Citygroup sukuk index," MPRA Paper 100689, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    10. Linnenluecke, Martina K. & Chen, Xiaoyan & Ling, Xin & Smith, Tom & Zhu, Yushu, 2016. "Emerging trends in Asia-Pacific finance research: A review of recent influential publications and a research agenda," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 66-76.
    11. Arfaoui, Mongi & Chkili, Walid & Ben Rejeb, Aymen, 2022. "Asymmetric and dynamic links in GCC Sukuk-stocks: Implications for portfolio management before and during the COVID-19 pandemic," The Journal of Economic Asymmetries, Elsevier, vol. 25(C).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Regime switching; Price discovery; Sharia stocks; Sukuk; Time varying transition probabilities;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets

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