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Evaluating light rail sketch planning: actual versus predicted station boardings in Phoenix

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  • Christopher Upchurch
  • Michael Kuby

Abstract

In recent years, transit planners are increasingly turning to simpler, faster, and more spatially detailed “sketch planning” or “direct demand” models for forecasting rail transit boardings. Planners use these models for preliminary review of corridors and analysis of station-area effects, instead of or prior to four-step regional travel demand models. This paper uses a sketch-planning model based on a multiple regression originally fitted to light-rail ridership data for 268 stations in nine U.S. cities, and applies it predictively to the Phoenix, Arizona light-rail starter line that opened in December, 2008. The independent variables in the regression model include station-specific trip generation and intermodal–access variables as well as system-wide variables measuring network structure, climate, and metropolitan-area factors. Here we compare the predictions we made before and after construction began to pre-construction Valley Metro Rail predictions and to the actual boardings data for the system’s first 6 months of operations. Depending on the assumed number of bus lines at each station, the predicted total weekday ridership ranged from 24,767 to 37,907 compared with the average of 33,698 for the first 6 months, while the correlation of predicted and observed station boardings ranged from r = 0.33 to 0.47. Sports venues, universities, end-of-line stations, and the number of bus lines serving each station appear to account for the major over- and under-predictions at the station level. Copyright Springer Science+Business Media New York 2014

Suggested Citation

  • Christopher Upchurch & Michael Kuby, 2014. "Evaluating light rail sketch planning: actual versus predicted station boardings in Phoenix," Transportation, Springer, vol. 41(1), pages 173-192, January.
  • Handle: RePEc:kap:transp:v:41:y:2014:i:1:p:173-192
    DOI: 10.1007/s11116-013-9499-9
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Kuby, Michael & Barranda, Anthony & Upchurch, Christopher, 2004. "Factors influencing light-rail station boardings in the United States," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 38(3), pages 223-247, March.
    2. Ryuichi Kitamura & Cynthia Chen & Ram Pendyala & Ravi Narayanan, 2000. "Micro-simulation of daily activity-travel patterns for travel demand forecasting," Transportation, Springer, vol. 27(1), pages 25-51, February.
    3. Taylor, Brian D. & Fink, Camille N.Y., 2003. "The Factors Influencing Transit Ridership: A Review and Analysis of the Ridership Literature," University of California Transportation Center, Working Papers qt3xk9j8m2, University of California Transportation Center.
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    Cited by:

    1. John Zacharias & Qi Zhao, 2018. "Local environmental factors in walking distance at metro stations," Public Transport, Springer, vol. 10(1), pages 91-106, May.
    2. Ding, Chuan & Cao, Xinyu & Liu, Chao, 2019. "How does the station-area built environment influence Metrorail ridership? Using gradient boosting decision trees to identify non-linear thresholds," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 77(C), pages 70-78.
    3. You-Jin Jung & Jeffrey M. Casello, 2020. "Assessment of the transit ridership prediction errors using AVL/APC data," Transportation, Springer, vol. 47(6), pages 2731-2755, December.

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