IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/jotrge/v41y2014icp107-115.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Transit ridership estimation with network Kriging: a case study of Second Avenue Subway, NYC

Author

Listed:
  • Zhang, Dapeng
  • Wang, Xiaokun (Cara)

Abstract

An attractive topic in transportation practice is transit ridership estimation. Reliable estimates are beneficial to spatial structuring, facility design, and vehicle operation, as well as financial and labor management. Traditional ridership estimation approaches mainly rely on regression models that consider subway fares, population, and employment distribution in surrounding areas. Yet consideration of ridership’s spatial dependency is largely lacking in these models. This paper recognizes the spatial effect by estimating the ridership of the new Second Avenue Subway in New York City using a network Kriging method. Network distance, instead of Euclidean distance, is used to reflect the fact that subway stations are only connected by subway tunnels. Results show that the new service should effectively relieve the traffic burden on other currently crowded subway lines.

Suggested Citation

  • Zhang, Dapeng & Wang, Xiaokun (Cara), 2014. "Transit ridership estimation with network Kriging: a case study of Second Avenue Subway, NYC," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 107-115.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jotrge:v:41:y:2014:i:c:p:107-115
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jtrangeo.2014.08.021
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0966692314001835
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.jtrangeo.2014.08.021?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Wardman, Mark, 2004. "Public transport values of time," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 11(4), pages 363-377, October.
    2. Eric Hildebrand, 2003. "Dimensions in elderly travel behaviour: A simplified activity-based model using lifestyle clusters," Transportation, Springer, vol. 30(3), pages 285-306, August.
    3. Baum-Snow, Nathaniel & Kahn, Matthew E., 2000. "The effects of new public projects to expand urban rail transit," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 77(2), pages 241-263, August.
    4. Kain, John F. & Liu, Zvi, 1999. "Secrets of success: assessing the large increases in transit ridership achieved by Houston and San Diego transit providers," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 33(7-8), pages 601-624.
    5. Frank Goetzke, 2008. "Network Effects in Public Transit Use: Evidence from a Spatially Autoregressive Mode Choice Model for New York," Urban Studies, Urban Studies Journal Limited, vol. 45(2), pages 407-417, February.
    6. Kuby, Michael & Barranda, Anthony & Upchurch, Christopher, 2004. "Factors influencing light-rail station boardings in the United States," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 38(3), pages 223-247, March.
    7. Wang, George H. K. & Skinner, David, 1984. "The impact of fare and gasoline price changes on monthly transit ridership: Empirical evidence from seven U.S. transit authorities," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 18(1), pages 29-41, February.
    8. Jin Kim & Ming Zhang, 2005. "Determining Transit’s Impact on Seoul Commercial Land Values: An Application of Spatial Econometrics," International Real Estate Review, Global Social Science Institute, vol. 8(1), pages 1-26.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Yu, Chengcheng & Dong, Wentao & Liu, Yunhao & Yang, Chao & Yuan, Quan, 2024. "Rethinking bus ridership dynamics: Examining nonlinear effects of determinants on bus ridership changes using city-level panel data from 2010 to 2019," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 151(C), pages 85-100.
    2. Kepaptsoglou, Konstantinos & Stathopoulos, Antony & Karlaftis, Matthew G., 2017. "Ridership estimation of a new LRT system: Direct demand model approach," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 146-156.
    3. Wang, Jing & Wan, Feng & Dong, Chunjiao & Yin, Chaoying & Chen, Xiaoyu, 2023. "Spatiotemporal effects of built environment factors on varying rail transit station ridership patterns," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 109(C).
    4. Zhang, Qian & Liu, Xiaoxiao & Spurgeon, Sarah & Yu, Dingli, 2021. "A two-layer modelling framework for predicting passenger flow on trains: A case study of London underground trains," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 151(C), pages 119-139.
    5. Vigren, Andreas & Pyddoke, Roger, 2020. "The impact on bus ridership of passenger incentive contracts in public transport," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 135(C), pages 144-159.
    6. Li, Shaoying & Lyu, Dijiang & Huang, Guanping & Zhang, Xiaohu & Gao, Feng & Chen, Yuting & Liu, Xiaoping, 2020. "Spatially varying impacts of built environment factors on rail transit ridership at station level: A case study in Guangzhou, China," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 82(C).
    7. Chica-Olmo, Jorge & Rodríguez-López, Carlos & Chillón, Palma, 2018. "Effect of distance from home to school and spatial dependence between homes on mode of commuting to school," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 1-12.
    8. Yuxin He & Yang Zhao & Kwok Leung Tsui, 2021. "An adapted geographically weighted LASSO (Ada-GWL) model for predicting subway ridership," Transportation, Springer, vol. 48(3), pages 1185-1216, June.
    9. Ciyun Lin & Kang Wang & Dayong Wu & Bowen Gong, 2020. "Passenger Flow Prediction Based on Land Use around Metro Stations: A Case Study," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(17), pages 1-22, August.
    10. Chuan Ding & Donggen Wang & Xiaolei Ma & Haiying Li, 2016. "Predicting Short-Term Subway Ridership and Prioritizing Its Influential Factors Using Gradient Boosting Decision Trees," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 8(11), pages 1-16, October.
    11. Ni, Linglin & Wang, Xiaokun (Cara) & Zhang, Dapeng, 2016. "Impacts of information technology and urbanization on less-than-truckload freight flows in China: An analysis considering spatial effects," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 92(C), pages 12-25.
    12. Zhuangbin Shi & Ning Zhang & Yang Liu & Wei Xu, 2018. "Exploring Spatiotemporal Variation in Hourly Metro Ridership at Station Level: The Influence of Built Environment and Topological Structure," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(12), pages 1-16, December.
    13. Ingvardson, Jesper Bláfoss & Nielsen, Otto Anker, 2018. "How urban density, network topology and socio-economy influence public transport ridership: Empirical evidence from 48 European metropolitan areas," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 50-63.
    14. Tu, Wei & Cao, Rui & Yue, Yang & Zhou, Baoding & Li, Qiuping & Li, Qingquan, 2018. "Spatial variations in urban public ridership derived from GPS trajectories and smart card data," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 45-57.
    15. Jeongwoo Lee & Marlon Boarnet & Douglas Houston & Hilary Nixon & Steven Spears, 2017. "Changes in Service and Associated Ridership Impacts near a New Light Rail Transit Line," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 9(10), pages 1-27, October.
    16. Wang, Xiaokun (Cara) & Zhang, Dapeng, 2017. "Truck freight demand elasticity with respect to tolls in New York State," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 101(C), pages 51-60.
    17. Yang, Chao & Yu, Chengcheng & Dong, Wentao & Yuan, Quan, 2023. "Substitutes or complements? Examining effects of urban rail transit on bus ridership using longitudinal city-level data," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 174(C).
    18. Munira, Sirajum & Sener, Ipek N., 2020. "A geographically weighted regression model to examine the spatial variation of the socioeconomic and land-use factors associated with Strava bike activity in Austin, Texas," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 88(C).
    19. Yadi Zhu & Feng Chen & Zijia Wang & Jin Deng, 2019. "Spatio-temporal analysis of rail station ridership determinants in the built environment," Transportation, Springer, vol. 46(6), pages 2269-2289, December.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Nelson, Peter & Baglino, Andrew & Harrington, Winston & Safirova, Elena & Lipman, Abram, 2007. "Transit in Washington, DC: Current benefits and optimal level of provision," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 62(2), pages 231-251, September.
    2. Guerra, Erick & Cervero, Robert & Tischler, Daniel, 2011. "The Half-Mile Circle: Does It Represent Transit Station Catchments?," University of California Transportation Center, Working Papers qt0d84c2f4, University of California Transportation Center.
    3. Fullerton, Thomas M. Jr & Walke, Adam G., 2012. "Border Zone Mass Transit Demand in Brownsville and Laredo," Journal of the Transportation Research Forum, Transportation Research Forum, vol. 51(2).
    4. Jinbao Zhao & Wei Deng & Yan Song & Yueran Zhu, 2014. "Analysis of Metro ridership at station level and station-to-station level in Nanjing: an approach based on direct demand models," Transportation, Springer, vol. 41(1), pages 133-155, January.
    5. Seungwoo Chin & Matthew E. Kahn & Hyungsik Roger Moon, 2020. "Estimating the Gains from New Rail Transit Investment: A Machine Learning Tree Approach," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 48(3), pages 886-914, September.
    6. Guerra, Erick & Cervero, Robert & Tischler, Daniel, 2011. "The Half-Mile Circle: Does It Best Represent Transit Station Catchments?," University of California Transportation Center, Working Papers qt68r764df, University of California Transportation Center.
    7. Lane, Bradley W., 2008. "Significant characteristics of the urban rail renaissance in the United States: A discriminant analysis," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 42(2), pages 279-295, February.
    8. Michaelides, Panayotis G. & Konstantakis, Konstantinos N. & Milioti, Christina & Karlaftis, Matthew G., 2015. "Modelling spillover effects of public transportation means: An intra-modal GVAR approach for Athens," Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, Elsevier, vol. 82(C), pages 1-18.
    9. Guerra, Erick & Cervero, Robert & Tischler, Daniel, 2011. "The Half-Mile Circle: Does It Best Represent Transit Station Catchments?," University of California Transportation Center, Working Papers qt9jd6r1t9, University of California Transportation Center.
    10. Shengxiao Li & Luoye Chen & Pengjun Zhao, 2019. "The impact of metro services on housing prices: a case study from Beijing," Transportation, Springer, vol. 46(4), pages 1291-1317, August.
    11. Deka, Devajyoti, 2012. "The impacts of non-resident parking restrictions at commuter rail stations," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 24(C), pages 451-461.
    12. Chen, Cynthia & Chen, Jason & Barry, James, 2009. "Diurnal pattern of transit ridership: a case study of the New York City subway system," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 17(3), pages 176-186.
    13. Diab, Ehab & Kasraian, Dena & Miller, Eric J. & Shalaby, Amer, 2020. "The rise and fall of transit ridership across Canada: Understanding the determinants," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 96(C), pages 101-112.
    14. Miao, Qing & Welch, Eric W. & Sriraj, P.S., 2019. "Extreme weather, public transport ridership and moderating effect of bus stop shelters," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 74(C), pages 125-133.
    15. Xiaohong Chen & Xiang Wang & Hua Zhang & Jia Li, 2014. "The Diversity and Evolution Process of Bus System Performance in Chinese Cities: An Empirical Study," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 6(11), pages 1-17, November.
    16. Bradley Lane, 2011. "TAZ-level variation in work trip mode choice between 1990 and 2000 and the presence of rail transit," Journal of Geographical Systems, Springer, vol. 13(2), pages 147-171, June.
    17. Lane, Bradley W., 2010. "The relationship between recent gasoline price fluctuations and transit ridership in major US cities," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 18(2), pages 214-225.
    18. G. Currie & A. Ahern & A. Delbosc, 2011. "Exploring the drivers of light rail ridership: an empirical route level analysis of selected Australian, North American and European systems," Transportation, Springer, vol. 38(3), pages 545-560, May.
    19. Guerra, Erick, 2014. "Mexico City's suburban land use and transit connection: The effects of the Line B Metro expansion," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 32(C), pages 105-114.
    20. Milioti, Christina P. & Karlaftis, Matthew G., 2014. "Estimating multimodal public transport mode shares in Athens, Greece," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 88-95.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:jotrge:v:41:y:2014:i:c:p:107-115. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.journals.elsevier.com/journal-of-transport-geography .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.