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The ballot order effect is huge: evidence from Texas

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  • Darren Grant

    (Sam Houston State University)

Abstract

Primary and runoff elections in Texas provide an ideal test of the ballot order hypothesis, because ballot order is randomized within each county and the state offers many counties and contests to analyze. Doing so for all statewide offices contested in the 2014 Democratic and Republican primaries and runoffs yields precise estimates of the ballot order effect across 24 different contests, including several not studied previously. Except for a few high-profile, high-information races, the ballot order effect is large, especially in down-ballot races for judicial positions. There, the empirical results indicate that going from last to first on the ballot raises a candidate’s vote share by nearly ten percentage points. The magnitude of this effect is not sensitive to demographic and economic factors.

Suggested Citation

  • Darren Grant, 2017. "The ballot order effect is huge: evidence from Texas," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 172(3), pages 421-442, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:kap:pubcho:v:172:y:2017:i:3:d:10.1007_s11127-017-0454-8
    DOI: 10.1007/s11127-017-0454-8
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. D. Grant, 1998. "Searching for the Downsian Voter with a Simple Structural Model," Economics and Politics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 10(2), pages 107-126, July.
    2. Paul N. Thompson & Joseph Whitley, 2017. "The effect of school district and municipal government financial health information on local tax election outcomes: evidence from fiscal stress labels in Ohio," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 170(3), pages 265-288, March.
    3. Bryan C. McCannon & Paul Walker, 2016. "Endogenous competence and a limit to the Condorcet Jury Theorem," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 169(1), pages 1-18, October.
    4. Ho, Daniel E. & Imai, Kosuke, 2006. "Randomization Inference With Natural Experiments: An Analysis of Ballot Effects in the 2003 California Recall Election," Journal of the American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, vol. 101, pages 888-900, September.
    5. John G. Matsusaka, 2016. "Ballot order effects in direct democracy elections," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 167(3), pages 257-276, June.
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    Cited by:

    1. Thomas Mustillo & John Polga-Hecimovich, 2020. "Party, candidate, and voter incentives under free list proportional representation," Journal of Theoretical Politics, , vol. 32(1), pages 143-167, January.
    2. Jarosław Flis & Marek M. Kaminski, 2022. "Party-related primacy effects in proportional representation systems: evidence from a natural experiment in Polish local elections," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 190(3), pages 345-363, March.
    3. John G. Matsusaka, 2016. "Ballot order effects in direct democracy elections," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 167(3), pages 257-276, June.
    4. Darren Grant, 2023. "Uncovering bias in order assignment," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 61(1), pages 82-98, January.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Ballot order effect; Primary elections; Runoff elections; Framing;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D72 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Political Processes: Rent-seeking, Lobbying, Elections, Legislatures, and Voting Behavior
    • D83 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Search; Learning; Information and Knowledge; Communication; Belief; Unawareness

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