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Uncovering bias in order assignment

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  • Darren Grant

Abstract

To mitigate sequencing effects in decision‐making, many situations require a set of items to be considered in a random order. When such orderings are repeated, one can test whether randomization indeed obtains, or whether some orderings have been manipulated in order to achieve a favorable result. This paper articulates the key features of this problem and presents three general tests for randomness. These methods are used to analyze the order in which lottery numbers are drawn in Powerball, contestants perform on American Idol, and candidates are placed on election ballots. This last application features frequent manipulation, with potentially serious consequences.

Suggested Citation

  • Darren Grant, 2023. "Uncovering bias in order assignment," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 61(1), pages 82-98, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:ecinqu:v:61:y:2023:i:1:p:82-98
    DOI: 10.1111/ecin.13114
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Darren Grant, 2017. "The ballot order effect is huge: evidence from Texas," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 172(3), pages 421-442, September.
    2. Nathan Novemsky & Ravi Dhar, 2005. "Goal Fulfillment and Goal Targets in Sequential Choice," Journal of Consumer Research, Journal of Consumer Research Inc., vol. 32(3), pages 396-404, December.
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    4. Page, Lionel & Page, Katie, 2010. "Last shall be first: A field study of biases in sequential performance evaluation on the Idol series," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 73(2), pages 186-198, February.
    5. Marco Haan & S. Dijkstra & Peter Dijkstra, 2005. "Expert Judgment Versus Public Opinion – Evidence from the Eurovision Song Contest," Journal of Cultural Economics, Springer;The Association for Cultural Economics International, vol. 29(1), pages 59-78, February.
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