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Uncovering Bias in Order Assignment

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  • Darren Grant

Abstract

Many real life situations require a set of items to be repeatedly placed in a random sequence. In such circumstances, it is often desirable to test whether such randomization indeed obtains, yet this problem has received very limited attention in the literature. This paper articulates the key features of this problem and presents three "untargeted" tests that require no a priori information from the analyst. These methods are used to analyze the order in which lottery numbers are drawn in Powerball, the order in which contestants perform on American Idol, and the order of candidates on primary election ballots in Texas and West Virginia. In this last application, multiple deviations from full randomization are detected, with potentially serious political and legal consequences. The form these deviations take varies, depending on institutional factors, which sometimes necessitates the use of tests that exchange power for increased robustness.

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  • Darren Grant, 2021. "Uncovering Bias in Order Assignment," Papers 2103.11952, arXiv.org, revised May 2021.
    • Handle: RePEc:arx:papers:2103.11952
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Darren Grant, 2017. "The ballot order effect is huge: evidence from Texas," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 172(3), pages 421-442, September.
    2. Nathan Novemsky & Ravi Dhar, 2005. "Goal Fulfillment and Goal Targets in Sequential Choice," Journal of Consumer Research, Journal of Consumer Research Inc., vol. 32(3), pages 396-404, December.
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    4. Page, Lionel & Page, Katie, 2010. "Last shall be first: A field study of biases in sequential performance evaluation on the Idol series," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 73(2), pages 186-198, February.
    5. Marco Haan & S. Dijkstra & Peter Dijkstra, 2005. "Expert Judgment Versus Public Opinion – Evidence from the Eurovision Song Contest," Journal of Cultural Economics, Springer;The Association for Cultural Economics International, vol. 29(1), pages 59-78, February.
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    7. repec:cup:judgdm:v:12:y:2017:i:4:p:415-421 is not listed on IDEAS
    8. Herbert Glejser & Bruno Heyndels, 2001. "Efficiency and Inefficiency in the Ranking in Competitions: the Case of the Queen Elisabeth Music Contest," Journal of Cultural Economics, Springer;The Association for Cultural Economics International, vol. 25(2), pages 109-129, May.
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