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Party-related primacy effects in proportional representation systems: evidence from a natural experiment in Polish local elections

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  • Jarosław Flis

    (Jagiellonian University)

  • Marek M. Kaminski

    (University of California)

Abstract

We study the primacy effects that occur when voters cast their votes because a candidate or party is listed first on a ballot. In the elections that we analyzed, there are three potential types of such effects that might occur when voters vote for (1) the first candidate listed on the ballot in single-member district (SMD) elections (candidate primacy); (2) the first party listed on the ballot in open-list proportional representation (OLPR) elections (party primacy); or (3) the first candidate on a party list in OLPR elections (list primacy). We estimated the party primacy effect (2) and established that there was no interaction between (2) and (3). A party primacy effect is especially difficult to estimate because parties’ positions on ballots are typically fixed in all multi-member districts (MMDs) and it is impossible to separate the first-position “bonus” from a party’s normal electoral performance. A rare natural experiment allowed us to estimate the primacy party bonus between 6.02 and 8.52% of all votes cast for the 2014 Polish local elections. We attribute the large size of such bonus to the great complexity of voting in the OLPR elections, especially the much longer ballots, voting in many simultaneous elections, and ballot design as a booklet rather than a sheet.

Suggested Citation

  • Jarosław Flis & Marek M. Kaminski, 2022. "Party-related primacy effects in proportional representation systems: evidence from a natural experiment in Polish local elections," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 190(3), pages 345-363, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:kap:pubcho:v:190:y:2022:i:3:d:10.1007_s11127-021-00939-1
    DOI: 10.1007/s11127-021-00939-1
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Adam Gendźwiłł & Kristof Steyvers, 2021. "Guest editors’ introduction: Comparing local elections and voting in Europe: lower rank, different kind… or missing link?," Local Government Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 47(1), pages 1-10, January.
    2. Amy King & Andrew Leigh, 2009. "Are Ballot Order Effects Heterogeneous?," Social Science Quarterly, Southwestern Social Science Association, vol. 90(1), pages 71-87, March.
    3. Marek M. Kaminski, 2018. "Spoiler effects in proportional representation systems: evidence from eight Polish parliamentary elections, 1991–2015," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 176(3), pages 441-460, September.
    4. Darren Grant, 2017. "The ballot order effect is huge: evidence from Texas," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 172(3), pages 421-442, September.
    5. Ned Augenblick & Scott Nicholson, 2016. "Ballot Position, Choice Fatigue, and Voter Behaviour," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 83(2), pages 460-480.
    6. Jac C. Heckelman & Nicholas R. Miller (ed.), 2015. "Handbook of Social Choice and Voting," Books, Edward Elgar Publishing, number 15584.
    7. Matthew Søberg Shugart & Melody Ellis Valdini & Kati Suominen, 2005. "Looking for Locals: Voter Information Demands and Personal Vote‐Earning Attributes of Legislators under Proportional Representation," American Journal of Political Science, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 49(2), pages 437-449, April.
    8. John G. Matsusaka, 2016. "Ballot order effects in direct democracy elections," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 167(3), pages 257-276, June.
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