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Goals as reference points in marathon running: A novel test of reference dependence

Author

Listed:
  • Alex Markle

    (Fordham University)

  • George Wu

    (University of Chicago)

  • Rebecca White

    (University of Chicago)

  • Aaron Sackett

    (University of St. Thomas)

Abstract

In a large-scale field study of marathon runners, we test whether goals act as reference points in shaping the valuation of outcomes. Theories of reference-dependent preferences, such as Prospect Theory, imply that outcomes that are just below or just above a reference point are evaluated differently. Consistent with the Prospect Theory value function, we find that satisfaction as a function of relative performance (the difference between a runner’s finishing time goal and her actual finishing time) exhibits loss aversion and diminishing sensitivity in both predictions of and actual experienced satisfaction. However, in contrast to Prospect Theory, we observe that loss aversion is partially driven by a discontinuity or jump at the reference point. In addition, we find that a runner’s time goal as well as their previous marathon times simultaneously impact runner satisfaction, providing support for the impact of multiple reference points on satisfaction.

Suggested Citation

  • Alex Markle & George Wu & Rebecca White & Aaron Sackett, 2018. "Goals as reference points in marathon running: A novel test of reference dependence," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 56(1), pages 19-50, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:kap:jrisku:v:56:y:2018:i:1:d:10.1007_s11166-018-9271-9
    DOI: 10.1007/s11166-018-9271-9
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Reference dependence; Prospect Theory; Loss aversion; Goals; Satisfaction;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C93 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Design of Experiments - - - Field Experiments
    • D03 - Microeconomics - - General - - - Behavioral Microeconomics: Underlying Principles

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