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The Hierarchical Repeat Sales Model for Granular Commercial Real Estate and Residential Price Indices

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  • Marc K. Francke

    (Amsterdam Business School
    Ortec Finance)

  • Alex Minne

    (MIT Center for Real Estate)

Abstract

This paper concerns the estimation of granular property price indices in commercial real estate and residential markets. We specify and apply a repeat sales model with multiple stochastic log price trends having a hierarchical additive structure: One common log price trend and cluster specific log price trends in deviation from the common trend. Moreover, we assume that the error terms potentially have a heavy tailed (t) distribution to effectively deal with outliers. We apply the hierarchical repeat sales model on commercial properties in the Philadelphia/Baltimore region and on residential properties in a small part of Amsterdam. The results show that the hierarchical repeat sales model provides reliable indices on a very detailed level based on a small number of observations. The estimated degrees of freedom for the t-distribution is small, largely rejecting the commonly made assumption of normality of the error term.

Suggested Citation

  • Marc K. Francke & Alex Minne, 2017. "The Hierarchical Repeat Sales Model for Granular Commercial Real Estate and Residential Price Indices," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 55(4), pages 511-532, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:kap:jrefec:v:55:y:2017:i:4:d:10.1007_s11146-017-9632-1
    DOI: 10.1007/s11146-017-9632-1
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    Cited by:

    1. Marc Francke & Alex van de Minne, 2024. "Combining machine learning and econometrics: Application to commercial real estate prices," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 52(5), pages 1308-1339, September.
    2. David Geltner & Anil Kumar & Alex M. Van de Minne, 2020. "Riskiness of Real Estate Development: A Perspective from Urban Economics and Option Value Theory," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 48(2), pages 406-445, June.
    3. Willem P Sijp & Anastasios Panagiotelis, 2024. "Estimating granular house price distributions in the Australian market using Gaussian mixtures," Papers 2404.05178, arXiv.org.
    4. Felipe D. Calainho & Alex M. Minne & Marc K. Francke, 2024. "A Machine Learning Approach to Price Indices: Applications in Commercial Real Estate," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 68(4), pages 624-653, May.
    5. Dorinth W. Dijk & David M. Geltner & Alex M. Minne, 2022. "The Dynamics of Liquidity in Commercial Property Markets: Revisiting Supply and Demand Indexes in Real Estate," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 64(3), pages 327-360, April.
    6. Fan He & Xuansen He, 2019. "A Continuous Differentiable Wavelet Shrinkage Function for Economic Data Denoising," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 54(2), pages 729-761, August.
    7. Albouy, David & Shin, Minchul, 2022. "A statistical learning approach to land valuation: Optimizing the use of external information," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 58(PA).
    8. Dorinth van Dijk & David Geltner & Alex van de Minne, 2018. "Revisiting supply and demand indexes in real estate," DNB Working Papers 583, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department.
    9. Alex Minne & Marc Francke & David Geltner & Robert White, 2020. "Using Revisions as a Measure of Price Index Quality in Repeat-Sales Models," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 60(4), pages 514-553, May.
    10. Dorinth van Dijk & David Geltner & Alex van de Minne, 2018. "Revisiting supply and demand indexes in real estate," ERES eres2018_41, European Real Estate Society (ERES).
    11. Liang Peng, 2020. "Benchmarking Local Commercial Real Estate Returns: Statistics Meets Economics," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 48(4), pages 1004-1029, December.
    12. Marc Francke & Alex Van de Minne, 2021. "Modeling unobserved heterogeneity in hedonic price models," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 49(4), pages 1315-1339, December.
    13. Dragana Cvijanović & Stanimira Milcheva & Alex Minne, 2022. "Preferences of Institutional Investors in Commercial Real Estate," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 65(2), pages 321-359, August.
    14. Zhu, Bing & van Dijk, Dorinth & Lizieri, Colin, 2024. "Price diffusion across international private commercial real estate markets," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 140(C).
    15. Marc Francke & Alex Van De Minne, 2022. "Daily appraisal of commercial real estate a new mixed frequency approach," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 50(5), pages 1257-1281, September.
    16. Lyndsey Rolheiser & Dorinth van Dijk & Alex van de Minne, 2018. "Does Housing Vintage Matter? Exploring the Historic City Center of Amsterdam," DNB Working Papers 617, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department.

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