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Futures Trading, Spot Price Volatility and Market Efficiency: Evidence from European Real Estate Securities Futures

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  • Chyi Lee
  • Simon Stevenson
  • Ming-Long Lee

Abstract

In 2007 futures contracts were introduced based upon the listed real estate market in Europe. Following their launch they have received increasing attention from property investors, however, few studies have considered the impact their introduction has had. This study considers two key elements. Firstly, a traditional Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity (GARCH) model, the approach of Bessembinder & Seguin (1992) and the Gray’s (1996) Markov-switching-GARCH model are used to examine the impact of futures trading on the European real estate securities market. The results show that futures trading did not destabilize the underlying listed market. Importantly, the results also reveal that the introduction of a futures market has improved the speed and quality of information flowing to the spot market. Secondly, we assess the hedging effectiveness of the contracts using two alternative strategies (naïve and Ordinary Least Squares models). The empirical results also show that the contracts are effective hedging instruments, leading to a reduction in risk of 64 %. Copyright Springer Science+Business Media New York 2014

Suggested Citation

  • Chyi Lee & Simon Stevenson & Ming-Long Lee, 2014. "Futures Trading, Spot Price Volatility and Market Efficiency: Evidence from European Real Estate Securities Futures," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 48(2), pages 299-322, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:kap:jrefec:v:48:y:2014:i:2:p:299-322
    DOI: 10.1007/s11146-012-9399-3
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    2. Chyi Lin Lee & Ming-Long Lee, 2012. "Do European real estate stocks hedge inflation? Evidence from developed and emerging markets," ERES eres2012_155, European Real Estate Society (ERES).
    3. Arzu Uluc, 2018. "Stabilising House Prices: the Role of Housing Futures Trading," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 56(4), pages 587-621, May.
    4. Thi Kim Nguyen & Muhammad Najib Razali, 2020. "The dynamics of listed property companies in Indonesia," Journal of Property Investment & Finance, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 38(2), pages 91-106, January.
    5. Ming-Te Lee & Chyi Lin Lee & Ming-Long Lee & Chien-Ya Liao, 2017. "Price linkages between Australian housing and stock markets," International Journal of Housing Markets and Analysis, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 10(2), pages 305-323, April.
    6. Zhou, Jian, 2016. "Hedging performance of REIT index futures: A comparison of alternative hedge ratio estimation methods," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 52(PB), pages 690-698.
    7. Frank J. Fabozzi & Robert J. Shiller & Radu S. Tunaru, 2020. "A 30-Year Perspective on Property Derivatives: What Can Be Done to Tame Property Price Risk?," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 34(4), pages 121-145, Fall.
    8. Corbet, Shaen & Lucey, Brian & Peat, Maurice & Vigne, Samuel, 2018. "Bitcoin Futures—What use are they?," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 172(C), pages 23-27.
    9. Chyi Lin Lee & Simon Stevenson & Ming‐Long Lee, 2018. "Low‐frequency volatility of real estate securities and macroeconomic risk," Accounting and Finance, Accounting and Finance Association of Australia and New Zealand, vol. 58(S1), pages 311-342, November.
    10. Clements, Sherwood & Tidwell, Alan & Jin, Changha, 2017. "Futures markets and real estate public equity: Connectivity of lumber futures and Timber REITs," Journal of Forest Economics, Elsevier, vol. 28(C), pages 70-79.
    11. Lee, Chyi Lin & Stevenson, Simon & Cho, Hyunbum, 2022. "Listed real estate futures trading, market efficiency, and direct real estate linkages: International evidence," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 127(C).

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